POLL: flop decisions (2 hands)

[elitegimp]

I was one of the 3 saying "fold" for hand 1 -- I don't think I'm ahead with 4 people willing to see the turn, and I'm getting 10:1. Counting Jd as 1/2 out (seems reasonable), I'm not getting decent odds from the pot (2 7s and 2.5 Js => 47:4.5 is worse than 10:1 to hit).

[dkernler]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2 I call intending to bet the turn if a blank hits or if there's no action. Nobody's folding here and many cards ruin my hand on the turn. I act last so I get a very good idea of where I stand when it's my turn to act on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm still new, but what would be a good turn card here? Any card below an 8 adds to the straight possibilities or pairs the top pair, and anything above is an overcard.

[btspider]

"answer key" - vote before reading

hand 1

hand 2

waiting until the turn has been such a difficult concept for me to grasp in some cases. hand 1 is a standard call and wait until the turn, but its hand 2 which really confused me for the longest time, even after I posted it and was overwhelmingly told to 3-bet. honestly cnfuzzd/Stellar's posts say it better than I can summarize. JR's response to me in hand 1 emphasizes the specific differences between these two hands.

edit: woops.. a discussion just broke out. i put up this post since everyone was providing their reasons, but not discussing [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[droolie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2 I call intending to bet the turn if a blank hits or if there's no action. Nobody's folding here and many cards ruin my hand on the turn. I act last so I get a very good idea of where I stand when it's my turn to act on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm still new, but what would be a good turn card here? Any card below an 8 adds to the straight possibilities or pairs the top pair, and anything above is an overcard.

[/ QUOTE ]
A good turn card would be one where nobody raises when SB bets out. I would be very surprised if an overcard hit and someone made a pair if they did not raise. You can then fold. If an overcard hits and there is no raise you can then raise thereby representing that it helped you.


I realize that both my answers were "wrong" but they were based on assumptions that were different than those made by the answer key answers. I don't necessarily agree that "nobody is folding to a reraise" in hand one. The mistake I made is that I forgot to factor in the idea that I don't want to play this hand anymore if he reraises me so the other guys folding has no value and therefore my r aise has no value. I change my answer to call here and admit defeat.

The scary thing about hand 2 is that I had already read that thread and I still got it wrong! LOL. The mistake I made here was not realizing a C/R in this situation means TPNK. It seems to obvious now. That being said I still like the idea of waiting for the turn. It just seems that so many cards could ruin our hand on the turn and that acting last will give us such a good idea of whether to stay or go. It seems like the thinnest of value bets when there is no chance of anyone folding the flop here and we are almost gauranteed to be C/Red or called down if we get outdrawn on the turn or river. I somewhat disagree with stellarwind that SB won't bet the turn if we all call. I hate to disagree with his theory as he's always right... but there it is..

[Catt]

I don't have access to SSHE here at work. Anyone else remember an example that was somewhat similar to hand 1 in which Ed Miller recommneds pitching it based upon the long-shot chances of (1) folding anyone out, and (2) having the best hand at the river? I seem to recall the same example referenced "reverse implied odds" and involved something like an 8 or 9 high flop in which Hero has TP medium kicker and there were lots of callers on the flop, but certainly can't be sure of my recollection.

I think I failed this test - but btspider was certainly correct that these are interesting hands.

[btspider]

I think Ed's hand goes like this:

bunch of PF limps.. you are in EP or EMP with A6.

Flop:
652 2-tone
SB bets, you act..

[Entity]

1) Call. Consider raising friendly turn card, or betting if checked to on the turn.

2) 3-bet. While the prospect of raising a friendly turn card for value is great, I think SB will be unlikely to bet the turn on most cards that you feel comfortable raising.

Good quiz, though.

Rob

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Ed's hand goes like this:

bunch of PF limps.. you are in EP or EMP with A6.

Flop:
652 2-tone
SB bets, you act..

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's the case, then I can see how position makes all the difference in the world.

My sample size is relatively small, but my PT stats strike me as a little low on flop fold % and a little higher (EDIT: higher than I'd like, not higher than my flop fold %) on turn fold % and I'm trying to identify where (if at all) I am betting or calling on the flop that I'd be better of folding. Hence the curiousity about hand 1 in particular.

Thanks for an intersting thread.

[stir]

Good thread. What I find interesting is that roughly half of all 2+2'ers responding got 'em wrong (including me).

[gopnik]

Don't you guys think stakes might effect your decision as well? Would you do the same thing if playing $.5/$1 vs $30/$60?