How Would You Play This Hand?

[fnord_too]

I think I call this down. Here is my reasoning:

There are a lot of hands that could be out there I am beating, and only 1 (right now) I am not. I could see a smaller flush or straight or two pair all c/r ing the turn here (as well as a bluff or semi-bluff).

If the blind has the nut flush, he probably will bet small on the end (if the board does not pair) to encourage a call. Fine. If he does not have the nut flush, he may check the river, bet small, or bet big. Fine, too.

The only place I get killed is if he switches up and pushes the river with the nuts, which is not too likely I think since I need a big flush to call there.

If checked to on the river, I check behind.

If the board pairs on the river, I call for all the above reasons.

Basically, I think I am easily ahead enough to call smallish bets down, and I don't think a hand that beats me will push here, so even if I am beaten I should come out with at least 100BB. Easy call down IMO, but I am certainly not raising or betting again.

[Sixth_Rule]

Here is what my opponent could have

1) Ax of spades, your not really screwed here if your really worried about it becasue if you call the turn bet and call down on the river i can see you keeping 20 000 in chips. Though if you don't think he has it you lose everything if he does.

2) any two spades. you can take all of his money here ... probably. if i knew he had this i'd raise 15 000 more on the turn and 15000 on the river.

3) a set (10 outs) or two pair (4 outs). 10 000 in the pot already i'd again rasie it 15 000 if i knew what he had but would forget after as soon as the river card came.

4) A spades + any card. if he has it, its 7 outs i think.
i still bet 15 000 here.

5) bluff or any pair. your not going to win any more money on this pot. unless you call inducing a bet on the turn.

so ok what should you do. if i have this hand i think i am in front. I actaully thin the other player is bluffing or has A of spades or has a smaller flush. This is the BB and would rasie AK [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] AQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] AJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and i think AT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
there are just so may other hands that would be played the same way as this tough player has playeed them that aren't A9-A2 of spades.

also you havn't shown flush yet. you havn't even represented a strong hands. you have only bet when it was checked to you on each round after limping pre-flop. I almost think this is the strongest argument as to why you are ahead. I may have made the 1200 flop bet and the 2500 turn bet with nothing. The other guy had NO clue you had a strong had when he came over the top.

So i'd assume i'm way ahead and make him pay to see the river. probably 15000. if he reraises then i am sweating but wouldn't be mad at myself if i went out on this hand

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I call this down. Here is my reasoning:

There are a lot of hands that could be out there I am beating, and only 1 (right now) I am not. I could see a smaller flush or straight or two pair all c/r ing the turn here (as well as a bluff or semi-bluff).

If the blind has the nut flush, he probably will bet small on the end (if the board does not pair) to encourage a call. Fine. If he does not have the nut flush, he may check the river, bet small, or bet big. Fine, too.

The only place I get killed is if he switches up and pushes the river with the nuts, which is not too likely I think since I need a big flush to call there.

If checked to on the river, I check behind.

If the board pairs on the river, I call for all the above reasons.

Basically, I think I am easily ahead enough to call smallish bets down, and I don't think a hand that beats me will push here, so even if I am beaten I should come out with at least 100BB. Easy call down IMO, but I am certainly not raising or betting again.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like it

[Rockatansky]

I think BB is making a play. Hero's play to this point has done nothing to indicate that he was on a flush draw. BB's check raise comes off as strong, but in actuality he made a less than pot-sized bet. I'd put him on A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]-x.

Between the odds of Hero folding and BB catching a spade on the river, BB is getting good odds here.

If BB had a made nut flush, why does he make this play? Would he do this just to test the waters to see if Hero has the straight flush?

[MMMMMM]

I would call, and probably make a modest bet if checked to on the river on an unpaired/non-4th-spade board.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
I would call, and probably make a modest bet if checked to on the river on an unpaired/non-4th-spade board.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands are going to call you on the river? You called a check raise on the turn with a flush possible, so you have to be really strong. I don't think your bet on the river is going to get called by 2pair or a set, so unless you think he has a smaller flush, your bet is only going to put you in danger of getting c/r by the nut flush.

[burningyen]

[ QUOTE ]
There are a lot of hands that could be out there I am beating, and only 1 (right now) I am not.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the correct way to think about this is there are 7 or 8 hands out there that beat you (As3s, As4s, etc., and maybe the straight flush). I agree with the general idea that the range of hands the BB could be holding is huge, and the nut flush is a small fraction of that range.

[ QUOTE ]
...I don't think a hand that beats me will push here....

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a tough player overbet with the nuts.

[Sixth_Rule]

[ QUOTE ]
If checked to on the river, I check behind.


[/ QUOTE ]
Ok i think your whole post was way to passive for my taste but thats ok i win more money on this hand and you get knocked out less but the above line dosnt make any sense. if you are checked to you 99% have the better hand and should bet out 10 000 because 15%-30% of the time you are called by a worse hand and the rest of the time you don't have to show your whole cards.

[West]

I don't really agree with you. Depends on the river bet, depends on the players involved, depends on whats been going on. I think two pair or a set may very well call on river, and I think a smaller flush is a lot more likely than the nut flush, particularly because your opponent is the BB. I think calling and checking behind a check on the river (at least when a blank falls) is too weak tight, and may cost you a nice value betting opportunity.

Also, consider the risk to the nut flush of checking the nuts on the river when you just flat called him on turn....he'd have to feel EXTREMELY confident that you are going to bet for him to check the river....I think for the most part, a river check in this case is telling you that you've got the winner...

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really agree with you. Depends on the river bet, depends on the players involved, depends on whats been going on. I think two pair or a set may very well call on river, and I think a smaller flush is a lot more likely than the nut flush, particularly because your opponent is the BB. I think calling and checking behind a check on the river (at least when a blank falls) is too weak tight, and may cost you a nice value betting opportunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

there is no way a tough opponent is going to check and call a bet on the river with 2pr or a set.
The tough opponent might also c/r you all in with the naked ace.