QQ UTG - surrender after flop???

[easypete]

Ok... I think I'm getting the responses I expected (and the responses I would have given), but there are a few things that stand out to me here.

The range of hands I put UTG+2 on preflop:
AA, KK, AK, AQ, AJs, 99, 88, KQ, KJs, QJs

With hands like JJ, TT, I would expect a 3-bet.

The range of hands I put MP3 on preflop:
JJ-88, KQ, KJ, QJs, AJs

If MP3 had a hand like AA, KK, AK, or AQs, he would have 3-bet easy, while UTG+2 is the one I fear with the monster.

Once the flop hit, I can eliminate a few hands.

I now put UTG+2 on:
AA, KK, AK, KJs. All of these are worth a slow-play here.

AQ, 99, 88. All of these hands are folding.

AJs, KQ, QJs. These hands are raising the flop.

The range of hands I put MP3 on after the flop:
JJ

TT-88 are folding

KQ, QJs, AJs are raising.

I am actually convinced by the preflop action and the flop action that I'm beat by both players (or a very good chance). They are both very aggressive and play the flop very aggressive (as well as pf). I smell something funny.

Turn Action:

I check, UTG+2 bets, MP3 raises, I fold.

I feel I should have bet out here, but due to the character of the table (very loose/passive) I don't see how I'm ahead after the flop with the only other 2 TA-A's on the table acting the way they did.

[easypete]

Stellar,

Thanks for the well thought out response.

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Guess what? Your opponents are not you. Having TAG stats does not make them perfect players. They may not know or follow the favorite 2+2 rules. You are reading way too much into this situation.

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Maybe I do. I'm a big fan of what I call "relativity in stats". If I see a 6-7% pfr stat, I assume they will raise relatively close to what my criteria is, same with the VPIP stats. I look for patterns in betting based on PFR, VPIP, AF, etc and compare it to the way I play. If I see a PFR stat of 15%, I can make a judgement of their pfr criteria based upon mine.

I've done this for a while. Is this not correct? I've got to have some metric in which to make judgements.

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I've played over 2k hands w/ each of the TA-A's. Neither one has more than 2% cold-call pf.

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A PT coldcall rate of 2% is about ten times the correct amount. Remember that this stat is based on all hands played, not opportunities to coldcall. This is hardly a selling point for your argument.

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Agreed, but I can still make some judgements on possible starting hands here.

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You need to get a grip on yourself. Online poker is a very lonely activity. Most of your opponents are fish whom you cannot identify with.

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Yes. I see that all the time, but as for the two in question, I have no doubt that they are not fish.

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It's very easy to develop an emotional connection to the few other decent players that you play a lot of hands with. They seem like colleagues. You start projecting your own thoughts and beliefs onto them.

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Acknowledged. I think since the release of SSH, I've associated some plays by other players as something I would have done (some correctly and some incorrectly). I will work on this.

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My experience is that very few tight players outside this forum are willing to fold any of their usual UTG hands when someone raises in front of them. Hands like ATs, KQo, and 88 are going to see the flop. Furthermore, they are not necessarily going to reraise preflop or raise the flop just because we think calling is too passive.

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I took this into consideration, but don't see how they would call after the flop.

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It is impossible to be certain what is going on here. I keep pushing the ladies until someone makes a stand.

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It's not possible to be certain. Read my last post before this one. I'm not truly certain, but pretty sure I'm beat here. My reasoning may have been flawed here, and that is why I posted this hand. I should have bet out on the turn and folded to a raise.