Folding TP Heads Up

[Grisgra]

I think I'm losing money by calling this down on a regular basis -- the turn raise screams two-pair or at the very least a better kicker (not too many aces you're ahead of here), and unless he gets counterfeited you're probably screwed.

Yeah, he could be bluffing. But the chance of that seems to me to be <20%. You're calling 2BB to get to showdown, to win 7BB.

Math is generally that if there's a >20% chance he's bluffing, call down, if there's <20% chance, fold. (That's not exact, because he could get counterfeited or you could catch a nine, but on the other hand there's a chance that he already has a set or somesuch, etc.)

And when it's very close, calling down might be best as to not get a rep as a "folder" in that situation.

Still, I've been in this situation a ton and I'd say that at least 90% of the time, I'm behind. Anyone who suggests three-betting the turn is on drugs.

[naphand]

The reason I posted was because, at the time, I felt it was VERY likely this was a weaker Ace with paired kicker on the flop (either that or an A). He limped PF, and that is a typical play by of lot of the loose players on UB $2/4. That and any 2-suited for a lot, but the any-too-sooted boys will be raising the flop here. I don't see many other X2/4/6 combos that people limp with - unless they are complete morons limping K2/K4 etc., which he wasn't. He called my flop bet, so he has to have a bit of a lot of the time.

I made the call down as I am "learned it that way", but this has to be a set or kickered A many times. If it is not, there are only 4 weaker Aces than mine that it could be, but again my PF raise and he has to be worried about a better A; I see a call down mostly in those circumstances, not a CR from a post-flop not-very-aggro player.

I'm glad people felt calling down was standard, but I am regretting getting swayed from my read at the time, this was a formulaic response, not necessarily a correct one given my read of the player. Ho-hum... [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[Grisgra]

As I said, I think that calling down is standard -- but that doesn't mean it's good [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

I'm exactly where you are -- *almost* confident enough in my reads in some cases to lay top pair down to a turn raise, but usually . . . not quite.

Maybe in a month or two [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. In the meantime, not giving up too much in EV calling it down. I really should keep a record (assuming there isn't a straightforward way of getting the stats through PT) of how many times, when raised on the turn, the raiser has 2-pair or better. Gotta say, the more I think about it . . . I think it's going to be 80%+, at least in the games I try to get into!

[DyessMan89]

I would have layed this down. You can afford to, as the pot isnt that big. I would put him on Aces-up or Ace,King.

[kiddo]

AF on turn is 3.5, u have to call. If his flop AF was low I would think about folding.

Not sure if any1 said it, but if he is sitting with 2pair, and it isnt top2, u have more outs then your kicker. If table pairs higher then his, you will win.

If he got A+bottompair, you have 9 outs, if he got 2nd, u got 6 outs. (as long as your kicker beat the table)... 9 outs make the call profitable, 6 outs+chance he is bluffing is ok. Top2, calling is bad. But overall, most times u have to call.

If he havent got the toppair, but 2 lowerm you have 8 outs (2As, 3 with your kicker and 3 with the last card on table).

[naphand]

Ah yes, the "hidden outs" scenario. Very good point, and makes the Turn call certainly correct in a few more situations.

[Dov]

I trust my reads implicitly when I play.

I remember being hesitant in the beginning too, but from what you describe, you know both the 'standard' play (which by the way is the one you use to GET a read) and the advanced play (which is read your opponent and act accordingly)

I think that if you strongly feel that your read is correct, and you've been playing well in this session, you should trust your reads and fold this hand. I hope that you will at least use the information you bought about this player correctly the next time you see this with him.

Good job on your read. Keep it up because you'll be pulling the trigger sooner than you think, and it will be one of the best sessions you ever had.

Dov