15/30 PP 77 perfectly?

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
When he states this :

If i flop a set i expect to be able to win a big pot here.

the answer to your question is yes.


[/ QUOTE ]

Who doesn't expect to win a big pot when flopping a set? Are you agreeing that preflop is raise or call? Seems to me that a fold is in order. Out of position with multiple players who can still possibly find a real hand and no gurantee that the donkey or the blinds will come along. Further, hero is playing against an early position raiser who most likely has two overcards or a bigger pair. Meh.

[TaintedRogue]

I would re-raise the flop with the blinds in the hand, especially with the SB leading out. Even a gutshot draw to a straight would be getting good enough implied odds to call a re-raise, so I have to re-raise and make them pay the premium price to draw. There would have been 17 bets in the pot, by my count, with a re-raise, cutting their pot odds from 16:1 to 8.5:1, if only one of them called.
I don't need 1 more small bet from the two blinds bad enough to let them in cheap.

[1800GAMBLER]

Everyone seems to think the reason for reasoning the flop is some other reason than value, i.e. charge people etc. The whole reason you are reraising the flop is for value given the large percentage of the time that UTG+2 has AA KK AQ and caps.

[Saborion]

And the fact that you'd like to see a pair + backdoor flush draw fold since the pot is starting to become big? Will that ever happen? Is that even worth anything in this spot or just a side-effect/bonus?

[hockey1]

Great, you MAYBE get 2 more SBs out of UTG+1 and all you had to do was lose potentially 4 SBs from the 3 players between hero and UTG+1 when they fold to the 3 bet. Oh, and don't forget about losing the ability to raise the turn if UTG+1 slows down, which could cost you up to another 4 BBs. That doesn't sound like value to me.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
And the fact that you'd like to see a pair + backdoor flush draw fold since the pot is starting to become big? Will that ever happen? Is that even worth anything in this spot or just a side-effect/bonus?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pair + backdoor draw is like 20:1 to hit, you'd like him in. His implied odds on you are very small too.

hockey1 said:

[ QUOTE ]
Great, you MAYBE get 2 more SBs out of UTG+1 and all you had to do was lose potentially 4 SBs from the 3 players between hero and UTG+1 when they fold to the 3 bet. Oh, and don't forget about losing the ability to raise the turn if UTG+1 slows down, which could cost you up to another 4 BBs. That doesn't sound like value to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's replies like this why we don't see all the top posters replying anymore. It's seems like you just went out to try to prove my point wrong rather than analyse it.

[ QUOTE ]
you MAYBE get 2 more SBs out of UTG+1 and all you had to do was lose potentially 4 SBs from the 3 players between hero and UTG+1 when they fold to the 3 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

The words in bold, and well, the whole quote shows why you are being biased. If you stil don't believe me answer the following questions

1. What hands do you think UTG has?

2. What percentage of the time do you think he caps with these hands?

3. What hands do you think MP3 SB BB could hold that would call 2 SBs cold yet not 3 SBs cold!? You didn't do this.

4. The hands you listed above, using bayes theorm, what's the probability of them holding them?

5. 'and all you had to do was lose potentially 4 SBs from the 3 players ' Do you actually think that is fair, unbiased and realistic?

You should search up Ed Millers quiz on flopping sets.

[hockey1]

With all due respect, you don't respond at all to the substance of my post

[ QUOTE ]
It's replies like this why we don't see all the top posters replying anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

Helpful. Sorry if I actually provide more of a response than "you shoulda 3 bet".

[ QUOTE ]
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Great, you MAYBE get 2 more SBs out of UTG+1 and all you had to do was lose potentially 4 SBs from the 3 players between hero and UTG+1 when they fold to the 3 bet. Oh, and don't forget about losing the ability to raise the turn if UTG+1 slows down, which could cost you up to another 4 BBs. That doesn't sound like value to me.


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It's seems like you just went out to try to prove my point wrong rather than analyse it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you're right that I went out to prove you were wrong, but that's because you are. I'm not sure what you consider "analysis"; I evaluated your recommended line versus his and spun out the likely outcome of each. His is better. That's analysis. Where's yours?

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
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you MAYBE get 2 more SBs out of UTG+1 and all you had to do was lose potentially 4 SBs from the 3 players between hero and UTG+1 when they fold to the 3 bet.


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The words in bold, and well, the whole quote shows why you are being biased. If you stil don't believe me answer the following questions

[/ QUOTE ]

Biased? What does bias have to do with anything? If by bias you mean that I prefer his play to yours then, yeah, I'm definitely biased -- his line is much better. You seem to equate bias with holding a different opinion from yours and in turn with wrong. You need to reconsider.

As for the substance, there are no guarantees. My analysis -- yes, that's what it is -- is based on the most likely outcome given the information provided. I'm not so arrogant to think that I can predict with absolute certainty the result of every alternative course of action, but my point was to show that your recommended course in all likelihood will cost hero significant money.

[ QUOTE ]
1. What hands do you think UTG has?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's Party 15, no reads on anyone but MP3. Isn't raising here after rasing preflop no matter what pretty much SOP for most Party 15 players? He could have just about anything. I'd say he most likely has AQ, but could have AA-88, AK, or something wacky.

[ QUOTE ]
2. What percentage of the time do you think he caps with these hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

The answer depends on what UTG+1 has and on what the other players do after hero 3-bets. If hero 3 bets and everyone calls (highly unlikely), and If he has one of the stronger hands (AA-QQ, AQ) he might well NOT cap given his relative position to hero if hero 3-bets the flop. He'll wait to check raise the turn and trap everyone in between for 2 BBs. If no-one calls the 3-bet -- which is significantly more likely given the uncoordinated board -- he STILL might not cap with the stronger hands and he definitely won't cap with anything else.

[ QUOTE ]
3. What hands do you think MP3 SB BB could hold that would call 2 SBs cold yet not 3 SBs cold!? You didn't do this.

[/ QUOTE ]

SB and BB would be calling ONE SB if hero smoothcalls, not two. They would certainly call ONE MORE SB with any piece of the board, MP3 probably would as well given the size of the pot. They would probably NOT do so for 2 or 3 SBs. Hell, if one of them has a Q or 2 pair one of THEM might even 3-bet this for you, which would be the best of all possible worlds.

[ QUOTE ]
4. 'and all you had to do was lose potentially 4 SBs from the 3 players ' Do you actually think that is fair, unbaised and realistic?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me put this another way: Am I biased because I disagree with you or are you biased because you suggested a bad line and feel the need to defend it?

Try thinking instead of reflexively attacking anyone who disagrees with you. That's what will bring back the "top posters."

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
could have AA-88, AK, or something wacky.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think 88 - JJ are equally as likely as AA KK?

[ QUOTE ]
and If he has one of the stronger hands (AA-QQ, AQ) he might well NOT cap given his relative position to hero if hero 3-bets the flop. He'll wait to check raise the turn and trap everyone in between for 2 BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you did your first analysis why didn't you include that case?

[ QUOTE ]
SB and BB would be calling ONE SB if hero smoothcalls, not two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, i missed read, which makes them more likely to recall again.

[ QUOTE ]
They would certainly call ONE MORE SB with any piece of the board, MP3 probably would as well given the size of the pot. They would probably NOT do so for 2 or 3 SBs

[/ QUOTE ]

Hands please. You also missed 'using bayes theorm, what's the probability of them holding them?'

The only question you actually gave a answer to was question 1 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me put this another way: Am I biased because I disagree with you or are you biased because you suggested a bad line and feel the need to defend it?

[/ QUOTE ]

The tone of your first post, plus the way you worded the possible cases shows it was biased. It wasn't a netural post to find the answer at all. After this post i really don't care to 'defend' this line anymore; the correct play is to raise flop.

[ QUOTE ]
Try thinking instead of reflexively attacking anyone who disagrees with you.

[/ QUOTE ]

My analysis was done before my post, after posting for so long you don't want to rewrite something you know. The attacking started with a sarcastic post from you.

[astroglide]

i would have waited to raise the turn as well

[1800GAMBLER]

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