Hand analysis - KQs - Page 2

dejableu · #11 09-17-2004, 04:21 PM

I don't know where you got 9 outs from. I count 10, with 4 Js, 3 Ks, and 3 Qs. Even if we discount his outs to 7 or 8, he improves to the best hand at least 30 percent of the time. Given that he is in a 5-way pot, I think he has enough equity for a raise. Plus, other considerations include a possible free card since he is last to act on the turn, and the possibility of cleaning up outs by getting AQ or Ax to fold when it's two bets instead of one.

ErrantNight · #12 09-17-2004, 04:25 PM

he has 7 solid outs... 3 jacks that aren't clubs, 2 kings and 2 queens that aren't clubs... and the 3 clubs K,Q,J. which leaves him at 8.5 and considering it might be overly conservative to suggest that clubs definitely counterfeit his hand i said 9. but you're suggesting that over the course of the next two streets he improves to a real hand 30% of the time that in this size field it's automatically the best? i'd say only the three off club jacks give him the lock nuts... everything else (and even that) is suspect. it's a pure drawing hand in a large field with outs that don't guarantee a pot and outs that even if they aren't immediately counterfeited on the turn could be so on the river. i just don't see this as a strong position to be in.

dejableu · #13 09-17-2004, 04:42 PM

None of his outs "guarantee" him the best hand. Even if he draws a J, there's the possibility that someone could re-draw on the river with a K or Q for broadway or another card for a flush or a paired board for a full house.

With outs, you are trying to determine, on average, how many cards will give Hero the best hand at showdown. So, on average, what percentage of the time is he going to win the hand when he spikes a J for a K-high straight? On average, what percentage of the time is he going to win with top pair and second kicker?

I don't know the precise answers to these questions. But I would give him all 3 non-club Js because he will win an extraordinarily high percentage of the time in those circumstances. I would also give him at least half an out for J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. With the 6 Ks and Qs, I'm not sure, but wouldn't you agree that, on average, top pair is going to win between 1/3 and 1/2 of the time? If you do, then that's another 2-3 outs.

So, conservatively speaking, we're giving Hero 6 outs. That's still the best hand in more than 25 percent of showdowns. I like Hero's raise because I think it makes his percentage go up, especially with respect to the K and Q outs.

dejableu · #14 09-17-2004, 04:46 PM

I feel exactly the same as Mike and Jonny. You are being too results-oriented. You are only chastising yourself because he three-bet you on the flop. But, in my experience, it is atypical for someone to three-bet a pre-flop raiser who then raises again on the turn. It is either the sign of a very aggressive player, or a very strong hand.

JinX11 · #15 09-17-2004, 05:39 PM

Thanks, all, for the feedback.

Actually, not trying to be results-oriented. Even if I did catch a J and a winning hand, I need to be asking the same question so that I'm sure the play is a good run in the long run. This hand is inconsequential.

Malcom Reynolds · #16 09-17-2004, 05:50 PM

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you've got two overcards that might be tainted outs... how is his equity strong enough to justify a raise here? am i missing something? 9 outs twice is really enough to justify a raise into this field on a fairly weak draw? even if you hit you may not be ahead... if you hit and go ahead there's still plenty of redraws for your opponents here... why raise?

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He's not raising because of equity.

He has the odds to call a gutshot here, but by raising he's improving his winning chances by potentially cleaning up his overcard outs.

Malcom Reynolds · #17 09-17-2004, 05:53 PM

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don't raise the flop. pot is too big,

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This is precisely the reason to raise the flop. Play aggressively in large pots. You call profitably here just to draw to the gutshot. Raising the flop cleans up outs, and protects your hand against some longshot draws if you do hit something.

ErrantNight · #18 09-17-2004, 05:54 PM

hope you don't take my arguing for close-mindedness... but i see your point and think this is probably an example of a place to make my game more aggressive post-flop...

thanks

ErrantNight · #19 09-17-2004, 05:55 PM

my thinking was that the raise didn't clear out anyone because it was too large already... but i think i was probably wrong :-)

thanks for your thoughts (as if this had been my post, or something)

Malcom Reynolds · #20 09-17-2004, 05:58 PM

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This is precisely what I was wondering. If you go down the road of pot odds too far, you find yourself capping the flop with any potential draw, just to give yourself "odds" to draw out.

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The raise is hardly to give you odds in the future to draw out, this is just silly, as the raise in the first place is easily -EV. It's just that you play aggressively in this large pot because you want people to fold hands that might draw out on you, and you'd love to get people to fold AQ, AK, or even another KQ by reducing the odds so that it's unprofitable for them to call. You are also hoping to fold backdoor flush draws that could outdraw your gutshot. For an extra bet you potentially could significantly improve your winning chances, so this is a +EV choice.

Check out the example on page 271 of Small Stakes, where the pot is large, and you have a gutshot, overcard and backdoor flush draw on the flop. The small blind bets, the big blind calls and the first limper raises. What's the correct choice here? The book says re-raise, and I agree.