10 25 nl

[BeeKay]

STop me if im wrong here, but it seems like if you fold this turn you are playing way to weak and then people will start to just take pots off you.

[Wayfare]

The reason why this is not "weak" is because he doesn't know what you have. If you showed him the TPTK and mucked for a turn min raise he might try to run you over, but he doesn't know whether you had AQ or 55 or whatever, all he knows is you mucked.

As to a better line:

Why not check the turn back and then call a reasonable bet on the river? If you were ahead you are probably still ahead, and you don't put your stack in jeopardy with only one pair. You might still catch / induce a bluff.

He could have a set very easily. I cannot see him doing this with KQ. There is no flush draw that he could have missed. He doesn't have a lower pocket pair than your pair on the board. I agree with Zee's comments from a previous post that players who play TP or an OP like this are going to get broke. In fact he said you "must" go broke.

EDIT: There is a classic example of this in R+C no limit section. The check/call flop, check/call turn (I know he min-raised), lead for pot on river move. This is almost always a monster because he is betting into shown strength on the river. I think you could have gotten away on the turn, and it would not have been "playing weak."

EDIT 2: I think that if you take my line, the pot will be $300 at the start of the river. He will bet $300 and you will call, and be annoyed his gutshot hit. However, he called the pot on the flop ($150) to catch his 10-1 shot. If he only wins a $600 pot by the end (because you don't know he only has a gutshot when you check back and he can only assume you will give him one card), he is not getting odds to draw. However, if he knows you are giving him the rest of your $1500 when he catches his 10-1 shot, I believe he even has odds to draw to this.

Summary: TPTK against this type of action is definately a crap hand for your entire stack. I think you could have saved yourself $1500 without being weak in the least.

[cornell2005]

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And while you have decent odds to call the $350, also realize that it takes you one big step closer to being pot committed.

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I hear this a lot, and I might be flat wrong here, but how is this a reason to fold? If you are pot committed on the river, that means you now have a play more profitable than folding, correct?

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on the river, yea you have a more profitable play than folding. but you may have a better turn/river combination play then calling the turn and not folding the river. like once you are committed, you really hate to fold, but the best play may be to not get committed in the first place with a turn call

[cornell2005]

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STop me if im wrong here, but it seems like if you fold this turn you are playing way to weak and then people will start to just take pots off you.

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the dont know what you hold for one, and this is a situation where the actual money potentially lost in the hand outweighs any metagame considerations

[AJo Go All In]

well say you have a 26% chance of having the best hand with no chance for improvement.

so say there is 300 in the pot after the flop. the turn comes and you bet 225. now he raises you to 450. so now you are getting 4.33-1 on your call. so you call.
now there is 1200 in the pot, and he bets his last 600 on the river. so now you are getting 3-1 and you call.

so what we have now is a situation where you effectively have put 825 into a pot of 1575 after your turn bet (225+600, 300+450+225+600). in other words, if opponent had reraised all-in on the turn rather than min-raising, we would be facing a bet of 825 into a pot of 1575, which is about 1.9-1 and not even close to the odds we need to call. so we can get away from it.

so, if we fold the turn we lose that turn bet 100% of the time. so -225.
if we call the turn and call the river, 26% of the time, we win the 300 from the pot, his 450 on the turn and 600 on the river. 74% of the time, we will lose 450 on the turn and 600 on the river. .26*1350 + .74*(-1050) = -426.

so we lose more by calling the turn and calling the river. we should fold the turn.

similar story when we are calling on the flop with a flush draw. we can't use the odds that it will be completed by the river, because we will face another bet on the turn if we miss. effective odds.

some of this math might be off, kinda rushed through this, but you get the idea.

[Matt Flynn]

if you're going to bet the turn, you want to know what to do if he check-raises. if he'll only check-raise you with a better hand or you can read him well, then you will make the correct commitment decision and so can play more aggressively.

if his check-raises aren't reliable and you cannot read him, the safest play is check the turn. depriving him of a street of betting makes it hard for him to put you to a commitment decision, which it turn makes it impossible for you to make an incorrect commitment decision (a very expensive mistake).

matt

[Ulysses]

The only exception to what people have said in this thread is vs. a specific kind of opponent. This opponent will take shots on the turn but will give up on the river. Against that opponent, you can call the turn and then fold on the river if he fires again. Against anyone else I check or bet/fold the turn.

[DcifrThs]

this is a very tough spot b/c of your position and the action. if you were UTG and raised you could possibly narrow down the sb's hands...but here he's thinking you could raise with a good deal so he calls lighter...how much lighter you don't really know.

on the flop he calls your pot bet. fact (under most circumstances) HE HAS SOMETHING...what it is you don't know what. since you still have a decent stack its quite possible he has a draw and/or a pair of some kind or a good ace like AQ he's slowplaying.

on the turn a blank (for all intents and purposes here) falls and he min checkraises you heads up given the action...

unless he is crazy and you don't know it you are 99% beat. this is a very strong raise unless you have a great read on the guy. he may have 55/99 some crazy 2 pair combo if he's loose or a turned straight if same holds true. i fold here.

river, given all the action is a fact. he has a set and wants you to call...that is unless you have a great read...

but on the whole, fold the turn.

-Barron