77

[Illininate]

Yes, it's possible he's raising with a draw. What do you realistically think the chances of that are, though? 10% of the time he has a draw? 5%? If he has JTo he's got 12 outs, if he's got two big diamonds he has 14 outs, if he somehow has J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] he's got almost half the deck to beat you. You're getting 7.2:1 from the pot. There's no way your hand will be good by the river often enough to justify a call.

Fold.

[Gatts]

[ QUOTE ]

At Party, wouldn't hands such as A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], JT, or other pocket pairs be possible cold calling hands? Raising draws here on the turn is not out of the question by a long shot.

[/ QUOTE ]

He cold called 2 bets preflop. This means he has.. well, it means he has 2 cards.

My math sucks, but let's try this out. Chastize me if I screw up, which I probably will.

If he has a draw, you win about 68% of the time.

If he has a king, you win about 2.5% of the time.

Pot is 7.20 BB on the raise. If he has a draw and misses, you're collecting 8BB for one more bet assuming a river fold. If he has a draw and hits, or a king, and you pay him off, you lose 2 bets.

So, if he has a draw, you're winnings 7 bets 68% of the time and losing 2 bets 33% of the time (this assumes a check/fold a whiffed draw, or a leadout on a made one) for a total of 4.1 Bets.

If he has a king you lose 2 bets almost 100% of the time.

(I'm not analyzing if you hit a seven and he hits a draw, because... well, I can't do this well as it is!)

So it seems he has to be raising a draw here approximately 50% of the time for the call to be profitable.

Of course, I'm probably completely wrong.

[Wad]

River was the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8.

I check, villian checks behind. Villian had [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J

[Eihli]

It sounds like you are being results oriented.

[Wad]

I don't disagree with you, that's why I posted the hand. I see a lot of players at Party 2-4, 3-6 and 5-10 who are willing to raise the turn with overcards, strong draws, etc.

[Fnord]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't disagree with you, that's why I posted the hand. I see a lot of players at Party 2-4, 3-6 and 5-10 who are willing to raise the turn with overcards, strong draws, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

With better table selection at 2/4 it's not a problem.