Suited Ace-rag hits Top Two Pair - How's My Line?

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
I have trouble believing that the odds on getting at least a flush draw, two pairs or trips - any of the above situations - is less than hitting a two-outer.

I welcome the math wizards to show me otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

For 2 pair or trips, (or FH) you need 2 or 3 of the remaining 6 cards that match your hand:

6/50 * 5/49 * 3 = 4.04%

For a flush draw or flopped flush you need 2 or more of your suit:

11/50 * 10/49 * 3 = 14.8%

But a flush draw is not a flush. You'll hit the flush 35% of the time, so the above comes down to:

14.0 % flush draw * .35 = 4.9% + .8% for the flopped flush or 5.7%

Also note that you might not have the odds to pursue the flush draw, so you won't really hit it 35% of the time. And when you hit trip aces, there's a possibility somebody else did too.

That's a total of 9.74% Vs 11.8% to hit a set.

I'm almost famous for math errors. Can anybody confirm this?

GG

[stripsqueez]

i'm confused about how a 7.5/1 chance converts to 11.8% but my math isnt great

i gave up playing this hand early unless i was in a fantastic pre-flop spot to limp - i wasnt prepared to pay a significant amount of my chips to draw on the flop so i simply didnt hit enough flops that would cause me to commit chips early

i think its fine to play this hand and i suspect that the structure of the tournament as opposed to the party SNG's makes it a better proposition - i would play the post flop the same way a lot of the time - certainly i always make sure someone drawing doesnt get much if any discount to see the river

a 6 isnt a "rag" - its a 6 - just because it has a rank lower than other cards doesnt make it something that should be referred to in derogatory terms - its the one and only card that has a rank of 6 - whats not to love about a 6 ?

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[GoldenHorde]

Open limping with A-6s is absolutely horrid, even when you do flop your draw you are going to have to play it out of position which is another great way to lose chips.

[NYCNative]

I asked about this in this very forum here and most people seemed to think limping with suited Ace-rag was not a bad play.

[hummusx]

1/7.5+1 = .11764705882352941176470588235294, or roughly 11.8%.

7.5:1 means that 7.5 times it WON'T happen for every 1 time it WILL happen. That means that there are 8.5 total 'times' we are considering, and 1 out of those 8.5 'times' you will actually make it.

[kyro]

You have a lot to learn on position.

[adanthar]

That's because you were asking in a limit ring forum. There's a difference.

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]
That's because you were asking in a limit ring forum. There's a difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

[durron597]

The problem here is not limp Ace-rag suited. The problem is openlimping it in EP.

I want to be in at the EARLIEST CO-1 before I limp with it, and I want AT LEAST one limper before I limp.

To the poster who put all the math in here, ok so 5% of the time you make your flush. But what about all the times you win a 100-150 chip pot by semibluffing, and the times you stack someone (thus getting 40:1 on your 20 chip bet). But I still want to be in position and have more players in the pot to increase the chances that I get paid off before I limp. I don't openlimp this hand even on the button.

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]

For 2 pair or trips, (or FH) you need 2 or 3 of the remaining 6 cards that match your hand:

6/50 * 5/49 * 3 = 4.04%


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think your math is very sound. Let's try to apply your logic to a slightly different scenario. If the flop were only two cards, what are the odds of being dealt 2 pair?

You say:

6/50 * 5/49 * 2

Does that seem right? I would think it should be:

6/50 * 5/49

When you multiplied by 3, I think you should have multiplied by 3/2 instead, giving a figure of more like 2%.