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#2
10-21-2005, 02:15 AM
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Re: I\'m the Villain.
[ QUOTE ]
You got me. I had A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Because this player was very tight and straightforward, and knows I'm tight, I knew his 3 bet on the flop meant AK (the only time he's tricky is when he has a monster; since he 3-bet the flop he doesn't have AA). I peeled one card to spike my queen with the intention of folding the turn UI. But then it occured to me that the last N times I could remember making a flush on the river, this dude hadn't paid me off. He was priding himself on making "good folds" against me. So I drew to the flush. I didn't show. [/ QUOTE ] wow! good read! How many times have you played with him to know him that well? 
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#4
10-21-2005, 02:40 AM
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Re: I\'m the Villain.
I think both of you played the hand poorly, sorry.
You need to have played with this guy a ridiculous number of times to make this play, and even then it's probably wrong imo. It's not really fair to make judgements about live reads, but I suspect you are overthinking the situation and this is just fps. Btw, why does he have to have AK on the flop? Why can't he have other aces? His fold of AK is absolutely terrible too.
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#5
10-21-2005, 03:06 AM
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Re: I\'m the Villain.
villain is calling anyway so hes only investing one more bet, you dont think with this specific read this play will work more than 1 in 9 times?
also if he does call, hell probly start paying off your flushes in the future
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#6
10-21-2005, 01:16 PM
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Re: I\'m the Villain.
[ QUOTE ]
You need to have played with this guy a ridiculous number of times to make this play, and even then it's probably wrong imo. [/ QUOTE ] Well, I guesstimate that I had something around 3000 hands with him live. I felt confident that if a spade came he would lay down a significant fraction of the time, which is all I need for the play to be profitable. [ QUOTE ] It's not really fair to make judgements about live reads, but I suspect you are overthinking the situation and this is just fps. [/ QUOTE ] That is always possible. It's one of the reasons I posted the hand. It's great that it worked and all, but did I get lucky? I'm not sure. I trusted my read and went with it though. [ QUOTE ] Btw, why does he have to have AK on the flop? Why can't he have other aces? [/ QUOTE ] He can't have other aces because he doesn't 3 bet me preflop with anything less than AK and JJ+, and has never 3 bet me on the flop with less than top kicker. [ QUOTE ] His fold of AK is absolutely terrible too. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. But he's very weak tight, or else I wouldn't have tried to make the play. He makes terrible folds all the time, particularly against me, because he knows if I'm betting or raising I'm usually winning. As I said, he prides himself on making these folds. He thinks they're the mark of an "expert player." He doesn't realize usually winning still means he only has to be good a small fraction of the time to make calling profitable. I will say he is the only player at the table I would make this play against, and also that I have made reads at the game that have proved costly because the opponent I put in a little box had evolved and improved his game out of that box. That may be an argument for not trying this sort of play.
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#7
10-21-2005, 02:48 PM
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Re: I\'m the Villain.
[ QUOTE ]
I felt confident that if a spade came he would lay down a significant fraction of the time, which is all I need for the play to be profitable. [/ QUOTE ] Remember that you have to hit a flush card or queen on the river as well, so the fraction is bigger. This is assuming you are behind.
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#8
10-21-2005, 02:58 PM
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Re: I\'m the Villain.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I felt confident that if a spade came he would lay down a significant fraction of the time, which is all I need for the play to be profitable. [/ QUOTE ] Remember that you have to hit a flush card or queen on the river as well, so the fraction is bigger. This is assuming you are behind. [/ QUOTE ] Yes. By "significant fraction of the time" I mean that this is one of those few times where having played against someone for thousands of hands, I was confident he would fold if a spade came and I raised. I won't make up some percentage, but I felt it was much more likely than not. I was thinking about this hand some more last night after posting it, and it occured to me that if he had made his foolish face up fold the LAST time this situation came up, where I actually had a flush and he didn't pay me off, I don't think I try to make this play. Does that sound contradictory? My thinking is that it might occur to him that he had previously shown me that he would fold TPTK heads up on the river for 1 more bet. That might encourage me to take a shot at him, so he should probably call.
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#9
10-21-2005, 02:58 PM
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Re: I\'m the Villain.
I think that plays like this are exactly why you take the time to develop reads. Not to say that I'd try this often, but I think it's absolutely worth a shot in this particular, rare scenario.
As ne says, if Hero does get called and loses to the AK, if nothing else this makes it more likely that he'll get paid off by this particular (regular) player in the future. So even if this is a -EV play on this particular hand, I think it has a positive expectancy over the long run.
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