Flop decision with KQ UTG when an A flops - Page 2

Danenania · #11 07-23-2004, 01:43 PM

I just can't imagine this being profitable at .50/1.00. Your bet probably isn't folding anyone and an opponent having an ace is fairly likely when they will play any ace from anywhere.

You're likely drawing to a runner-runner and even if you aren't you only have King high. Any pair will beat you. I'd save this bet for the 10/20 games. Am I wrong?

chief444 · #12 07-23-2004, 02:04 PM

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I would bet out or check/fold or check/raise

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Me too. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Seriously though I think given that hero checked in the first place on the flop laying this down is best. I'd much rather raise the button than check/call. Check/calling seems real bad here. I would probably bet the flop because I like to bet, especially when I raise pf. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] But I think it's probably best to get away from this hand early. It's not that I'm that worried about the A (which is part of it), it's more that combined with two diamonds combined with my hand completely sucks now.

Nemesis · #13 07-23-2004, 03:08 PM

Lets not get carried away with our new found agressiveness... I think folding is clearly the right choice.

chief444 · #14 07-23-2004, 03:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Lets not get carried away with our new found agressiveness... I think folding is clearly the right choice.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just meant I liked check/raising much better than check/calling, not that check/folding wasn't the best option after he did in fact check.

SteveY · #15 07-23-2004, 03:36 PM

Well let's say its 33/33/33 that he has an ace, flushdraw, or 9.

Against an ace, I'm pretty much dead.
Against a 9, I have 6 outs or 6/46=7.666.
Against a flush draw, I'm ahead but with just a 2/3 chance of winning since he's going to the river.

So 33% of the time, I have almost no chance of winning. Another 33% of the time, I have a 7.66% chance of winning. ANd another 33%, I have a 66.6% chance of winning.

Average: (0+7.66+66.66)/3 = about 12%

On the flop I'm getting 10.5 to 1, so I could technically call if I have a 12% chance of winning. But I might also face bets on the turn and river. BUT I didn't factor in how often he's just position betting with nothing.

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I guess I have no point.

jmark · #16 07-23-2004, 03:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Average: (0+7.66+66.66)/3 = about 12%

On the flop I'm getting 10.5 to 1, so I could technically call if I have a 12% chance of winning. But I might also face bets on the turn and river. BUT I didn't factor in how often he's just position betting with nothing.

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You also didn't factor in the fact that if you decide he's bluffing you have to check/call all the way to the river, so you're not just getting 10.5 to 1 you're getting like 14.5 to 4 or something like that. Something about reverse implied odds here.

cartoonsoldier · #17 07-23-2004, 04:26 PM

I dont know why people are telling you to raise/bet the flop and lead the turn when at the Nano limits even with A2 the opponent would go till showdown.

Unless you have some draw or are positive that the opponeent only has a PP and out outs are clean leading this flop would be advisable.

Bettting with QKo into a flop with an ace and no draws is going to lose you money in the loong run for sure.

SteveY · #18 07-23-2004, 04:45 PM

Yes you're right. Even if I hit a King on the turn, I can still get redrawn if he has a flush draw and I still might be behind an ace.

I also realized that the flush draw has a pair draw on me too. :/ So I'm not a 66% favorite. Overall this isn't a good situation for me.

Greg J · #19 07-23-2004, 04:52 PM

Sometimes the right play seems weak tight. The implied odds here are very bad. Betting this flop will probably cost you in the long run, but just checking/calling is worst of all. The pot is not big enough to checkraise to isolate and make other people fold. I like your check fold.

flair1239 · #20 07-23-2004, 04:55 PM

I know this may run contrary to the new prophet of Poker Ed Miller's advice (looking forward to reading his book by the way). But there are (4) people in the hand who cold called an early position raise. You have no immediate clean outs, it is unlikely that they will all fold to a bet (Although I will say a check raise might get you heads up... but for what?)

There is no shame in folding here. If it is a button steal... oh well other players make nice plays sometimes too.