Bubble - hero is behemoth

[HesseJam]

I concur, overall its a good move in this scenario. It seems only bad if villain has the J or is on a big heart draw. Maybe a pair is also dangerous. So, overall the folding probability seems quite high. If you just check, you pretty much gave up on the pot.
You are risking 1300 to win 1000 so you'll need a folding probability of about 56% for being EV chip neutral, right?


How about your preflop move covering the 500 with any two. Pot odds, paying 300 for 700 and planning for the S&G?

[Ixnert]

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A pocket pair? Yes. How often does he have this, I'd say 30% of the time.

A Jack? Yes. He has a Jack 8% of the time.

High cards. ?? He has high cards the rest of the time (62%), the question is how often he will call with these. If he folds them mostly then I think we have a winning play. If he calls mostly then we lose.


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I think you've got to include some chance that he was (incompetently) stealing with any two. Maybe not much, since a lot of people don't like trying to steal from the chip leader, but you've got to give this some possibility. Maybe 10-20%?

I think this just makes this play even more in your favor, so it doesn't make much of a difference, but like Harrington's admonition that there's almost always at least a 10% chance that your opponent is bluffing, I think you've got to include some chance in any preflop open-raise evaluation that your opponent was on a bald steal.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
hmmmm... but I probably wouldn't risk my chiplead = bully power.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm certain that my actions here are bullying.

Furthermore, there is no better stack to bully than the 2nd stack.

I'm not trying to justify my actions. I'm just looking for more fault. I don't mind giving the chips to villain (the pf call chips) if I don't care for the board. But I certainly like the JJ2 board.