|
|
#12
10-20-2005, 12:15 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Draw heavy board against passive players (TURN ACTION + RIVER)
[ QUOTE ]
It seems like you've been at this table for less than an hour, yes? [/ QUOTE ] Either that or, the villains were at the table for a few orbits, don't particularly remember. 
|
|
#13
10-20-2005, 01:00 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Draw heavy board against passive players (TURN ACTION + RIVER)
[ QUOTE ]
Hero has far too few hands on Villain to make this fold. In addition, there are meta-game reasons for making this sort of call early on against a new player and at a new table. It seems like you've been at this table for less than an hour, yes? [/ QUOTE ] I saw something in mid-high about this type of thing a couple days back. I agree with your point that a laydown might encourage somebody to start taking shots. The thing is (as that post I read said) so you take that into account, your next close decision the EV might be tiopped to positive, because of this fold. We are not making this fold often anyway. As I said against a different player type, we do have to call. But the intital read on the villian does not suggest a particulary creative or aggressive player. In this case I think that makes a close crying call a close fold. I agree that you will have to consider the "meta-game" in future hands in this session, but I don't think that is enough of a reason to call here. That said I see where you are coming from, and I am not saying there is no doubt in my mind. But I really don't think we can go around making this particular call everytime and expect to be ahead in the long run.
|
|
#14
10-20-2005, 02:28 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Draw heavy board against passive players (TURN ACTION + RIVER)
And I see your point and where you're coming from, but I just don't trust a 40-hand read enough to fold a hand that I only need to win 9% of the time. If he had 100 hands on him with the same stats, I'm fine with a fold.
I personally have had many stretches of 4 orbits where my stats would be completely bizzare looking.
|
|
#15
10-20-2005, 02:33 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Draw heavy board against passive players (TURN ACTION + RIVER)
[ QUOTE ]
And I see your point and where you're coming from, but I just don't trust a 40-hand read enough to fold a hand that I only need to win 9% of the time. If he had 100 hands on him with the same stats, I'm fine with a fold. I personally have had many stretches of 4 orbits where my stats would be completely bizzare looking. [/ QUOTE ] I understand your point, and I agree there have been good samples of my own where my stats have diverged from my "norm" for decent periods. I think our divergence might come from this: In the face of no information, I am willing to incorporate weak information (ie 40 hand samples) in close decisions, when that is all that I have. I kind of butchered that, but I think you get what I mean. I the original decision is close anyway, and even the relatively weak sample we have is enough to nudge it for me.
|
|
#16
10-20-2005, 02:33 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Draw heavy board against passive players (TURN ACTION + RIVER)
[ QUOTE ]
I personally have had many stretches of 4 orbits where my stats would be completely bizzare looking. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, last night I saw a guy with 20/10 stats limp in with A2s in EP and then check raise a J92 flop. [censored] donkey. Donkey in disguise no less.
|
|
#17
10-20-2005, 02:35 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Draw heavy board against passive players (TURN ACTION + RIVER)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I personally have had many stretches of 4 orbits where my stats would be completely bizzare looking. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, last night I saw a guy with 20/10 stats limp in with A2s in EP and then check raise a J92 flop. [censored] donkey. Donkey in disguise no less. [/ QUOTE ] Ummm...was it me [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
|
|
#19
10-20-2005, 02:42 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Draw heavy board against passive players (TURN ACTION + RIVER)
Did you change your user name?
If so, I totally paid off the river like a fool. But your betting + the board made absolutely no sense to me. I should have folded to the river bet, but in my wildest dreams I'd never have expected to see that hand. I really thought you had T9. [censored] donkey.
|
|
#20
10-20-2005, 02:44 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Draw heavy board against passive players (TURN ACTION + RIVER)
[ QUOTE ]
Did you change your user name? If so, I totally paid off the river like a fool. But your betting + the board made absolutely no sense to me. I should have folded to the river bet, but in my wildest dreams I'd never have expected to see that hand. I really thought you had T9. [censored] donkey. [/ QUOTE ] No same user name. Must not have been me.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
