8-handed online 20/40: shaky protection

[disjunction]

How often do you think there's an ace behind him?

[theBruiser500]

Why is no one responding to disjunction's post with the math? MMCD says, "The pots gigantic and getting hands like AQ/AJ to fold is well worth an extra sb or 2 IMO. " but what does your opinion have to do with this, this just seems like a math problem to me.

Disjunction you said raising costs an extra 1.5 bets but it seems like 1.75 is more accurate. But anyway using your number 16:1 odds, or your play needs to work 1/17 times for it to be profitable, and you are adding a 1/25 chance of hitting your out, that seems definitly bad to me. How by the way would we convert this 1/17 vs. 1/25 thing to actual $$ or BB lost because of this raise? So, how do you guys refute disjunctions point?

[mmcd]

You have just shy of 25% pot equity not counting Aces as outs. Any bet you put in the pot will only cost you 75% (1.13sb assuming you figuring on putting 1.5sb in the pot, and 1.31sb assuming you figure on putting in 1.75)

The button has a bigger ace than you here far more than 50% of the time given the preflop and flop action. By cleaning up the the two remaining aces as outs, you are adding ~6% to your pot equity, or around 1.5sb to your expectation. Once you factor in implied and reverse implied odds here, a raise is clearly better than a call as you will likely multiple bets those times you hit your flush and (had you not knocked the button out, you would have had to put at least 1bb in on the river if an A hit. Also getting the pot heads up prevents it from getting raised again on later streets unless you want it raised. I said "IMO" because I was basing my assertion on my intuition as to how the math would work out.

[disjunction]

[ QUOTE ]
You have just shy of 25% pot equity not counting Aces as outs. Any bet you put in the pot will only cost you 75% (1.13sb assuming you figuring on putting 1.5sb in the pot, and 1.31sb assuming you figure on putting in 1.75)

[/ QUOTE ]

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mmcd,

Thanks for the reply. I don't think poker is all math, but I do think discussing it every once in awhile exposes the assumptions we are making in a way. And there's the old adage that says if you estimate enough paramaters, your errors will roughly offset. My comments about yours:

(1) How do you get 25% ? 4 outs gives you only 17% pot equity, and that assumes nobody's cards interfere with your 1-card straight draw. So if you figure to put 1.5 sb in, it's really 1.25 (you're right, I missed this, that's why I posted). If you figure on putting 1.75 sb in, it's 1.45 sb. So your additional investment will need to bring you back 1.25-1.45 sb in order to be worth it.

(2) Here's where you're probably right and my numbers are off. Your figure of buying 1.5 sb means he's about 70% likely to have an ace AND fold it, my figure of 50% means you only buy 1.12 sb. The flop action sure looks like an ace, but are we 90% sure, and then will he fold it 80% of the time (.90*.80= 72%) ?

(3a) I'm going to wave a wand and say implied odds won't be much better than the 25sb pot odds, because of future betting to chase your draw.

(3b) I probably agree that the 3-bet will somehow help you in future streets, although the button won't be around to pay you off when you hit your draw.

So the conclusion of this post is it costs 1.1-1.5 sb to make a little more than 1.25-1.45 sb. If it weren't close, it probably wouldn't have been posted.

[mmcd]

(1) How do you get 25% ? 4 outs gives you only 17% pot equity,

You have the backdoor flush draw, running 8s, and running A 8 as outs as well.

[weevil]

I like the play. You clear out any high overcards sticking around for their one pair and probably one someone with an overpair or strong draw will stick around. Your three betting the SB will push the button off overcards, and if he calls you know you're probably looking at an overpair from him and probably one from the SB too, as these were the preflop aggressors. So if you isolate the SB and he caps on you, you can figure you're going to pay six SBs to see the river to win 31 SBs assuming he bets into you on the turn and river and you can get him to call a river raise. That's nearly 5:1 on a 2.2:1 shot (I'm giving you four outs for the inside straight, 1 1/2 for the flush, and 2 1/2 for your ace = 8). Perfect play. If the button caps, you've got trouble. Now you can be pretty sure both the SB and BB are sitting on overpairs, and there could be a raising war on the turn anyways. You definitely call and look at the turn, but what about the river? Let's assume they make it three bets on the turn with you calling. You've now put 10 SBs in to win at least 24 SBs, which is 2.4:1 on a 2.2:1, so I think you can withstand some raising on the turn as well. You pretty much can't lose with this hand?

[astroglide]

the point is only worth refuting, if one wanted to (i don't) as a post-analysis. it's certainly valuable to get the mathies out of the woodwork on situations like this but at the table there is no way i'm calculating anything remotely close to that, i'm just going by what seems appropriate. i like hands like this though because it forces us to re-evaluate our definitions of proper action.

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Astro,

Nice hand.

Preflop, I most likely play exactly the same. It would be nice to know the numbers of the limpers and the numbers of the players on your left, but it sounds like you're not much of a numbers guy so you probably don't have them to give. Against the mix of most tables I'm at though, the limp is not just fine, it's correct. I call the two back to me unless MP3's numbers are such that he's likely to fold, but the vast majority of players aren't, so without numbers I'm calling.

On the flop, you must bet. You know this, but I don't think most here do. You're going for a Button raise here, which didn't happen, but fortunately things were flip-flopped in terms of who has what and the SB gave you an opportunity to accomplish your goal, just not the way you were expecting. This is actually better, since you now have position on the overpair and hitting your ace becomes easier to extract value. So you do the right thing and 3-bet, Button folds as planned, and you're capped. Which is fine. A free card would've been nice, but not expected.

On the turn, you should call any turn card but your gutshot. This includes spiking an ace. Raising an ace would be bad, as I think you already know.

On the river, you're not calling. There is exactly zero hands that you want to call with here. You're raising an Ace, either turned or rivered, and you're folding to a 3-bet. You're raising backdoor trip 8's. You're raising backdoor flushes. You're raising rivered gutshots. Never calling. Calling is bad on this street. You're folding turned or rivered 8's.

This was a good hand to post. You played it well, and I think you probably know how to play it well on the turn and river. Very nicely done.

Edit: Concerning the PF action, I just saw your title said this one was dealt 8-handed. In the PF action, you said there were 2 folders then a limper to you. In that case, you were 2 off the Button and I think you should raise against most mixes. The rest of the action indicates that you were 3 off the Button though, in which case I'd limp against most mixes.

GoT

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Bruiser,

I'm a numbers guy and incorporate a lot of math and weighted ev calcs and such into my game. I've done quite a few calcs for these exact situations, enough to know by looking at this one that 3-betting the flop is the right play here. I don't feel like doing this exact situation right here, right now, but if you still have your doubts I'd encourage you to crunch some numbers yourself. Once you do enough of these for specific situations against a bunch of different specific ranges of hands in specific pot sizes, you get a feel of what is right when against whom just by remembering the pattern of those calcs and the turning points for different plays. This one's a 3-bet.

GoT

[GuyOnTilt]

if i turned an ace, i'd raise the river and fold to a threebet. if i rivered an ace, i'd raise and fold to a threebet.

Sweet.

GoT