5/10 NL on UB - JT on the JJ5 flop

[Ian]

No one has mentioned a very important fact: JT has at least 3 and possibly four outs to the stone-cold nuts on river. He has about 6 additional outs to the nuts where worse case he chops. Either the opponent has you beat on the turn or not (or you're tied -- lol). If he has you beat and you hit the nuts, you get paid off big on the river. If you miss and he moves in, you have an easy fold. If he checks the river, your hand is possibly good. If he bets you out of the hand on the river while holding inferior cards, you will get your money back from him (or others like him) over time anyway. I don't see how not throwing the $240 in here could possibly be +EV. This discussion is a perfect example of what Gus Hansen means when he says most players don't understand the equity implications of their decisions.

[turnipmonster]

let me get this straight, you want to call 240 to win 1k with 6 (really 4)outs? and you are contending this is a +EV move? have you taken math?

--turnipmonster

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
let me get this straight, you want to call 240 to win 1k with 6 (really 4)outs? and you are contending this is a +EV move? have you taken math?

--turnipmonster

[/ QUOTE ]

Harshest...turnipmonster post...ever...

[1800GAMBLER]

... results?

[greywolf]

[ QUOTE ]
No one has mentioned a very important fact: JT has at least 3 and possibly four outs to the stone-cold nuts on river. He has about 6 additional outs to the nuts where worse case he chops. Either the opponent has you beat on the turn or not (or you're tied -- lol). If he has you beat and you hit the nuts, you get paid off big on the river. If you miss and he moves in, you have an easy fold. If he checks the river, your hand is possibly good. If he bets you out of the hand on the river while holding inferior cards, you will get your money back from him (or others like him) over time anyway. I don't see how not throwing the $240 in here could possibly be +EV. This discussion is a perfect example of what Gus Hansen means when he says most players don't understand the equity implications of their decisions.

[/ QUOTE ] It hasn't been overlooked that is why i advocate for a call on the flop. If you raise he may push and you have to fold and you would have missed your small chance to improve and take down a big pot. The risk is to big for a flop raise and you really dont gain any information by raising the flop. If hes a good player hes not gonna bet the turn unless he got you beat anyway. And to call the turn would be a terrible play. "dont go broke in an unraised pot"
And my guess is you never been to school or you just didnt paid any attention at all on the math lessons.

[gergery]

Seems to me like your either way ahead or way behind at your decision point so calling is best, assuming you have some doubt as to whether your hand is good. You get more from bluffers (AA/KK/QQ) and lose less to winners (55/AJ/KJ/QJ). Note that the winners are significantly more likely statisitically, if you think he'd play those range of hands from EP.

Then decide on the river based on how much he bets, by asking what would this player bet here if he had AA/KK --I'd think that number would be 0 or pretty small.

just my 2 cents
--Greg

[GoSox]

What ?? you dont think flopping top set is good ?? johnsy please let me know what site you play on.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
What ?? you dont think flopping top set is good ?? johnsy please let me know what site you play on.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's clearly not top set, but I want results too

[Jon Matthews]

.

[chumdawg]

I've been reading these boards for a while. This thread seems interesting enough to warrant my first post.

I believe that folding to the turn bet is the worst of the three options. In this situation I would give serious consideration to a raise, perhaps even a push all-in.

Ian is correct that there are a number of hidden outs to think about. Here's a look at all the hands that are either ahead of our hero or have a chance to be ahead by the showdown. I have calculated the cost per hand if hero puts villain all-in with a raise to $1034. (This assumes that the SB folds. He is down to $173, so it's a real possibility that he calls. But SB's play on the flop was unusual, so who knows what to expect. Why did he just call the raise? If he had anything at all, that was the time to push it all in. If he didn't, he had no business calling the raise.)

Jacks full - worst-case scenario for hero, who would have three outs to win and two outs to tie. Hero loses $820/hand if he pushes and is up against jacks full.

Better jack - Hero has three outs to win and six outs to tie. (This assumes that all the outs are clean. Who knows what SB is holding.) Hero loses $713/hand if he pushes and gets called. Hero wins $560/hand if he pushes and a better jack folds.

Fives full or dueces full - Hero has seven outs to win. Loses $660/hand if he pushes and is called. Villain is not likely to fold here, but of course, hero wins $560 if he does.

Worse jack - Hero wins $993/hand if he is called.

Pocket pair (besides 55 and 22) - Hero wins $1207/hand if called.

Flush draw - Stranger things have happened. Hero wins $887/hand if called.

43diamonds - The monster draw. Hero wins $566/hand if called.

43offsuit - Hero wins $887/hand if called.

Suited gutshot - Hero wins $727/hand if called.

Offsuit gutshot - Hero wins $1100/hand if called.

Hero would have to be awfully sure that villain was already full to lay down his hand here. A better jack, even ace-jack, would have to give serious thought to folding even to a minraise. Villain would then have to wonder what to put hero on. Could he have fives or dueces? If so he would have raised the flop. So he's probably got the other jack--which happens to be the jack of diamonds, which means that hero could also have a flush draw. And of course, hero could already be full himself. Not to mention that if villain is holding JQ or JK, hero could have him outkicked.

I say raise it to $560. If he calls, he's likely to check the river if he's not full. But if he's not full, I think he'll fold enough of the time to make a raise profitable here. And if he reraises all in...well, at least you have him covered.