Negreanu's tournament theory regarding big pots.

[Eldog605]

I've been thinking a lot about it, and I think I came up with a pretty good analogy. Lets take major league baseball. Ichiro Suzuki's batting average is .378 and his on base percentage is .417. This means that whether the count is 3-0 or 0-0, Ichiro has about the same chances of getting to first base. As the pitcher misses the plate, and the count runs to 3-0, Ichiro's chances of getting to first base are only enhanced partially. I think we can compare chip counts in poker and ball count in baseball for this example.

On the other hand, there is a player like Lance Berkman, whose BA is only .313 (small in comparison) and whose on base percentage is .455. For the analogy, we'll equate getting to first base to winning a tourney in poker.

But contrary to Ichiro, Berkman's chances of making it to first base rise dramatically with each pitch that misses the plate (or for the poker player, each chip he gains). We know this, because his on base percentage is .455...meaning he walks an incredible amount of times. So obviously, the ball (chip) count matters much more to the lesser of the two hitters, Berkman. When the ball count is 3-0, Berkman's chances of getting to first have risen so high that his numbers can compete with Ichiro's.

Lance Berkman needs the pitcher to miss the plate so that he can compete with Ichiro Suzuki. Just like lesser poker players NEED the chips in order to compete with world class pros. As for Ichiro, he is a danger any time he's at the plate.

Of course, then there is Barry Bonds, whose BA is .373, and whose on base percentage is a staggering .611. I guess we could compare him with a world class pro who also happens to be devastatingly lethal, and unrelenting, with a big stack of chips (3-0 or 3-1 counts, for the baseball analogy). Any thoughts on which famous pros might fit into these three categories?