Final Table Hand at the Legends of Poker WPT Main Event

[Bernas]

Hi Sossman,

Normally I would say push here too but if this guy is folding as much as he says he is I don't see why a small raise here isn't ok. 2.5X the blind still leaves him with over 100K in chips and he will have 6 chances to double that up before the next Big Blind.

Is this a no brainer push for you or this a close decision?

[bobby rooney]

I would say it's a bit of a no brainer because pushing gives you the highest chances of winning the pot. If you push, AKo is one of maybe ten hands he's going to call with. It was unlucky that he ran into that, but that's poker. If he makes a weak raise, he is inviting his opponent to either make a move at the pot preflop or to call with hands that he would prefer to be folded like ATo or KJo, Axs and all the smallish pairs. Since we know the player is fairly tight, he will fold most of the time, the times he calls we will still have a chance as even a dominated hand has a shot.

[SossMan]

I don't really want to be called here, since just about any flop will be hard to play (except a monster). I can't imagine that the guy is so tight that he will fold to a SB open raise of 2.5x when he is getting 3:1 on his call (with the antes).
However, at this stage in the tourney, with 2 other short stacks, he will probably not put his life on the line w/ out a pretty good hand if we go all in. My guess is that he would have to have 99-AA, AK, maybe AQ or AJs to call here.

That represents about 10-15% of the potential hands (I'm guessing, I could be off here, but it should be close to that) So the folding equity should be 85-90%. When called, you are probably on average a 2:1 dog vs. the range of hands that would call.

I don't think your folding equity would be nearly as high with a 2.5x raise. Anything bigger, and you are darn near PC'd anyway.

A fold would be pretty weak tight.

[Boris]

[ QUOTE ]
Otherwise (unless Tom Lee flops strong) I should be able to outplay the player if we both see a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think that? You have a short stack and no position.

[cferejohn]

Haven't read the rest yet, but I'm pushing this 10 times out of 10 pretty much regardless of my read of the BB. I probably have the best hand. I'm value betting.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know the results.

I hate to steal against the squeezers with a real trouble hand like k-10. the reason being that if you are call there is a very good chance of being dominated. In this situation I prefer to steal with the suited connectors, or Q-5. At least if you get called you will have two live cards.
Against a looser player the k-10 maybe has decent high card equity. But not against the tighty.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes but against the tighty you win the pot, which amount to a quarter of your stack, a vast majority of the time...

[betgo]

I don't understand the argument that although pushing is right in a smaller tournament, you should try something fancier in a major tournament against a known professional.

You have a hand that plays well alllin, but you have no advantages for seeing the flop. You have a terrible hand to flop something big, you don't have position, you don't have chips, and you are probably playing a stronger player.

If you are inexperienced at the final table of a major tournament, it seems like you should simplify things by going allin when possible.