Flopping top set and getting KILLED! - Page 2

Officer Farva · #11 09-09-2004, 04:52 PM

65%?

What about the probablity of the board pairing?

It closer to 70%, depending on what draws the guy has.

And who's too good for a 65% favorite?

fnurt · #12 09-09-2004, 04:52 PM

A set is about 75-25 against a flush draw. Remember that you can improve to a full house.

SossMan · #13 09-09-2004, 04:57 PM

I don't know how you ever made it to 4 final tables in a row, but you should be able to imply that if they are calling you with naked flush draws then they will certainly be calling you with top pair and two pair hands (where they are drawing mary-kate thin)

PokerNeal · #14 09-09-2004, 04:58 PM

Yes, you can improve to a full house from a set with 2 more cards to come and you are the favorite to win this hand against a flush draw.

When all is said and done, remember that Poker is gambling. It is not skill alone. You need luck. By being the odds-on favorite you are giving lady luck a better chance to come through for you.

You refer to the final table and say how you could lose your position by playing aggressively even when you are the odds-on favorite. This then begs the question. Are you at the final table to place as high as possible or win the tourney? If it is to win the tourney you have to take the chance and push your chips in. If not, you can play conservatively and you will get a place (instead of the #1 spot).

david050173 · #15 09-09-2004, 05:55 PM

Sounds to me like the flush draws are getting decent odds (if 2 other players are going all in front of them) to call. If they still have enough chips to play after calling you it is probably a good move on thier part.
One way I can think of discouraging the flush draw in this case is not to bet the river. You are then giving a free card so if the flush comes you have to lay down. But if it doesn't come you can bet the turn and since he only has 1 card to come, he might be more likely to pass on the flush draw. I can't imagine that is a EV postive move. You need to encourage flush draws to fold and if they call you have to take your chances.

Officer Farva · #16 09-09-2004, 06:27 PM

Why do the newbies always make posts about their lame bad beats? Do they think it will make us like them?

DimensionPresident · #17 09-09-2004, 08:35 PM

The bad beat thing was already covered in this thread. Read up a few, Officer.

I was genuinely looking for different ways to play this hand in this situation. Some people have been kind enough to offer their opinions, and I thank them for that.

Luckily my life is just complete enough that looking for acceptance on a random message board isn't something even remotely crossing my mind... yet.

Maybe one day my four aces will get beat by five and I will sink so deep into depression that winning over message board buddies will be high on the to-do list. But for now, not so much.