Gus calling Esfandiari's all-in 7s with 10 8

[West]

Just read how this was in some kind of a freeroll for $25,000...if the prize didn't mean much to Gus, he probably was having some fun with this hand, knowing that his call would appear crazy, but at the same time, maybe having a read and feeling confident in his chances of either getting pot odds or not getting too much the worst of it if he was against overcards.

[daryn]

listen guys, from now on just look for the name daryn, then read what he posts.. you will save time and avoid looking foolish.

[RowdyZ]

While you are doing such a good job of making excuses for Gus lets go back to the First Superstars show and please explain how his play with AJ calling Chips allin with AK was a sound play or his play with 97o vs Howards pocket Kings. I am sure there was much more to it then just awesome suckouts. please go deep and let us know. I noticed in the 2nd half of that Rd he wasn't hitting and got bounced pretty fast.

[Desdia72]

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Hi Desdia,

Okay, it was clearly a correct call. And pushing KJo vs. Phil Laak's KQs was also correct....

* T8s vs. Antonio Esfandiari's 77 -- Antonio opens. Gus raises to ~100K. Antonio has about 400K left. Antonio thinks, and quite obviously is having a tough time making a decision. Then he pushes in. Now, if he has a big pair, he doesn't need this long to decide, and he'd probably make a smaller reraise to try to get Gus to come along. If he has big overcards (like AK, AQ), against Gus Hansen, he'd be pretty sure he was in good shape, and again he'd be wanting to get Gus to come along. This looks a whole lot like a bet that doesn't want a call. So what is Antonio holding? Probably a middle or small pair. Gus has at least one overcard, and probably two, and a suited connnector. He's getting 5:4 on his call. It's clearly the correct decision.

* KJo vs. Phil Laak's KQs -- Phil opens from EP and it's around to Gus in the BB. Gus probably figures he's either a 2:1 dog (vs. Ace-under), or a coin-flip dog (vs. a small pair), although he might also be slightly ahead (vs. a small suited connector). If he is a 2:1 dog, and he pushes all-in, then he needs .33 steal equity for it to be a break-even play. As it turns out, he's a 3:1 dog, but that's not much different in terms of the steal equity (.35) he needs to break even. He probably figures he has that, and makes the big all-in move. As it turns out, Phil doesn't fold -- although he seriously considers it -- and Gus has a 3-outer that hits.

Keep in mind that this was a winner-take-all table, which means there's no benefit to finishing 2nd over 6th. He has to get all of the chips on the table to win, so it plays as a cash game, where even marginally +EV decisions are the correct plays. Here he made +EV decisions -- in the first case based on his read of Antonio's hand, and in the second based on his evaluation of the steal equity -- then "got lucky" when he hit the cards he needed.

Sorry ... that's not "luck." It was sound poker.

Cris

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Sound poker.. It is easy to go back and build a defense for Hansen after the fact but that 108 play was horrible. period. Dress it up all you want but it was a stupid and typical Hansen play. I know I know I just don't understand the genius that is Hansen. Start as a dog, sometimes a small sometimes huge but always behind and suckout on key hands, yep that is a master allright.

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exactly, so when i make a comment that if this play were made by a $5 SNG player or "dead money" in a big buy-in tournament, i doubt the same praise or professional explaination. without the explaination, this play by a bad player is the same thing. if it's a bad play by a bad player, it's a bad play from Gus no matter how you try to word it. VVP and M Sexton thought it was a loose call. you did'nt hear them talking about +EV and pot odds and their both aware of the same thing. Esfandiari could'nt believe it.

[CrisBrown]

Rowdy,

I didn't see that show, so I can't comment. And Gus Hansen hardly needs me to "make excuses" for him. I try to learn from what I see when I'm watching top players. That means beginning with an assumption, namely, if they do something I disagree with, they're right and I'm wrong. The obvious next step, for me, is to try to reason out why.

Cris

[Desdia72]

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While you are doing such a good job of making excuses for Gus lets go back to the First Superstars show and please explain how his play with AJ calling Chips allin with AK was a sound play or his play with 97o vs Howards pocket Kings. I am sure there was much more to it then just awesome suckouts. please go deep and let us know. I noticed in the 2nd half of that Rd he wasn't hitting and got bounced pretty fast.

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i've already touched on this too. i'm eager to hear the explainations to justify also.

[SmileyEH]

Didn't you post a while back about the "math + odds" side of tournament poker. I'm pretty sure Gus is well informed in this regard. are you?

-SmileyEH

[NLfool]

don't care what anyone says his 10,8s was stupid. Though I don't feel that least bit sorry for Antonio. Did you see his girlfriend? I don't even need daryn to chime in on this subject.

[bones]

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VVP and M Sexton thought it was a loose call. you did'nt hear them talking about +EV and pot odds and their both aware of the same thing.

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I hope you aren't serious here. VVP has zero concept of hand values. The way he blows his load every time he sees a "real hand" (4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) should tip you off to this.

[Airpoaneman]

That was pure tv. Go Gus!!! That was awesome