Amarillo Slim

[Kopefire]

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Why are you jumping down my throat?


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Because you are stating that you'd prefere to believe someone with proven capacity to do this sort of thing well is making a fundamental error instead of admitting that your lack of understanding comes from your own ignorance. There's nothing wrong with being ignorant of some things, we cant' know everything after all. But there is something wrong with assuming flaws in your interloquitors simply because you don't understand something. It's called hubris, and it is frown on in polite society.

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Is it a scientific fact that if I ask 30 people their birthday that 2 of them will definitely have the same birthday?


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No. But then, that's not what Slim claimed, is it? This is known as a 'straw man" argument, it's also frowned on in polite society.

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I don't think so, so why don't you calm down.


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I'm not upset. I'm amused.

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So I can't figure out the equation, does that mean I have to believe hook line and sinker every statistic I hear?


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Absolutely not. But do you insist that every equation you can't personally figure out must be wrong because you can't understand it? That's what you did. That's what I'm jumping down your throat over.

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I'm not allowed to be skeptical?


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Skepticism born of ignorance is generally of very little value. If one is ignorant of a subject the best course of action when investigating that subject is to politely ask questions of people who know more without assuming that anything you don't understand can't be true.

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Even if Slim did have a 70% chance, he still could have gotten unlucky and lost the bet.


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Well no doh. That's why it's called gambling. It wouldn't be much of a gamble if it wasn't? Wanna bet me $10 that 2+2=4?

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If you want to bet me that I can't find 30 people with 30 different birthdays, I'll gladly put up my house.


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Dude, you really know nothing about statistics do you. Oh, and this is another straw man. No one is saying 30 people can't have different birthdays. There's a big difference between a nearly random sample and a systematically selected sample.

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You seem to be missing the whole point of my thread.


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So far it seems the point is for you to brag about how you don't understand statistics so therefore Amarillo Slim and anyone else who believes his claims must be wrong because you don't understand the equations yourself.

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I'm not arguing that the stat is false, I just find the statistic a bit "unreal," for lack of a better word.


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Yes, it's counter-intuitive for people who don't understand statistics. That's what makes it a good bet. We've covered this before.

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And the funny thing is, you STILL can't seem to provide the math!


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1) someone else already provdied the math.
2) I can provide the math, but that's not the aspect of your post I'm responding to.

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You mock me because I don't know the formula to figure the problem out.


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I haven't mocked you because you are ignorant of the math. I have berrated you because instead of stopping with stating you didn't understand something, you presumed that because of that lack of ability on your part someone else must be stupid. That's a rather arrogant and uncivil thing to do.

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Well, that's why I'm posting...To get the formula. So I ask again, can some one with a "proper background in math" please post the formula?


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To figure out the a priori probability of an event happening, you subtract from 1 the probability of it not happening.

Since the opposite of none of them having the same birthday is all of them having different birthdays, the formula is:

365!/ ((365-number_of_peopl)!*365^number_of_people)

Subtract that from 1 and there you are.

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Are all people on this forum as condescending as you?

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I don't know. Are you always so insulting of people who know more than you?

To recap - I started off agreeing with you - it's counter intuitive and noted that that's what makes it a good bet. You're the one that decided the follow up should be; well, then I can't figure it out, so folks who believe it must be wrong!

*shrug*

Personally, I'd rather be considered condescending for not accepting uncivility towards others than be so uncivil without cause.

Have a good day.

[benedetti]

If someone needs a practical prove can go to this site and try it. I have found this webpage through a Google search: "list of students" "date of birth", and it is the first match. In the first 25 students, there are two with the same date of birth. And it happens again in the next 12 and the next 18.