No Limit at Foxwoods - Bad beat or bad playing?

[Cohiba Al]

There are some interesting comments on this thread. Here are some of mine.

1. 25o is often considered a junk hand, especially by those adhering strictly to the Sklansky method. Do you have the correct odds to limp into the pot with it if there are 7 limpers in front of you? 8? What about the extra positional considerations of being "on the button" for this limp; does your favorable position make limping (with many limpers in front) with such a garbage hand more of good play?

In my opinion, I feel you have the right odds to see the flop for cheap. The hand is less likely to get you stuck, as an earlier poster alluded, than a hand such as K5o with a K on the flop (thus the "fold equity"). The potential return if you miraculously flop a wheel or set or full-house can be enormous for the total investment of a $5 limp.

2. Should the player, acting in last position, make a $40 bet when checked to with nothing but an eight-out open ended straight draw? With 5-7 opponents left in the hand what are the chances he can take down the pot right there or get raised and be forced to fold? What about the added benefit of getting called and then turning the straight with an Ace or a 6; does getting opponents more invested into the pot create a better return if you hit one of your outs?

In my opinion this is the trickiest to answer, the part of the poster's question that most deserves analysis. The rest of the hand was admittedly played well, sadly too for the suck-out beat at the end. It has been my experience that firing an opening bet with 3-5 or more opponents who have checked to me will on average cost me money in the long run. As the number of people left in the hand increases the likelihood of them ALL folding to a single bet decreases. I normally won't semi-bluff with a weak hand unless there are 2 or less people I need to drop.

However in this situation perhaps making an opening $40 bet is a good idea. There are 6 people who limped in for $5, making $30 in the middle. Betting the pot here will drop all but one or two; those callers will make the pot now $110 to $150. It is the size of the pot, and the personal investment of $45 dollars that will potentially earn the player here hundreds IF HE MAKES HIS STRAIGHT ON THE TURN . He now has built the pot, and his opponents' commitment to it, and has the mortal nuts to boot!

However, this is the aspect of poker strategy where I am least certain. Perhaps it depends on the players bankroll on the table: Is a $40 speculative bet that fails worth the return when it works? What size stack of chips would make this the correct play? What are the long term issues associated with this play (player image at the table, getting future action on good hands, confusion etc)? These things I am not sure of.

Overall, I think this was a very interesting hand. I think Murph played it well and got his money into the middle when he had the nuts. Sadly, the opponent hit a 4-outer to beat him. Better luck next time!

[Kirkrrr]

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However, this is the aspect of poker strategy where I am least certain. Perhaps it depends on the players bankroll on the table: Is a $40 speculative bet that fails worth the return when it works? What size stack of chips would make this the correct play? What are the long term issues associated with this play (player image at the table, getting future action on good hands, confusion etc)? These things I am not sure of.

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I think there may be several benefits to betting in this situation.

1) Building the pot, as you mentioned. You need 2:1 on your money to make it profitable long-term. With this many callers, you're virtually guaranted a call or tow; thus, you make your Sklanksy $.

2) Image. The Hero is deep stacked enough that the bet is pretty small but will earn him calls later on that won't come if everyone knows that he only bets with the best hand.

Having said that, I wouldn't have bet in that particular situation. With two hearts on the board and so many people in, you're virtually guaranteed a flush draw, so Hero has 6 outs. Along the same lines, I'd be afraid of a check-raise as the likelyhood that someone limped in or flopped a good hand is just a little too high for my comfort.

Kirk R.

[Murph]

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Should the player, acting in last position, make a $40 bet when checked to with nothing but an eight-out open ended straight draw? With 5-7 opponents left in the hand what are the chances he can take down the pot right there or get raised and be forced to fold? What about the added benefit of getting called and then turning the straight with an Ace or a 6; does getting opponents more invested into the pot create a better return if you hit one of your outs?

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Thanks for all the constructive feedback.

If anyone cares, this is what I was thinking when I made the $40 pot sized bet after the flop:

1. maybe I can take it down right there, making people think I have made the high pair on the board and if I don't I am on the button and in good position for future bets etc.;

2. I have to force bad pot odds on any draws to a flush;

3. I want to build the pot in case I hit the straight.