7th street - fold, raise, or call?

[eh923]

I know that folding a real hand to 1 bet on the river is retarded...but should I on this hand?

Party 3/6 - Table was mildly aggressive, but I'd only been there for about 6 or 7 hands at this point.

3rd Street: (1.16 SB) Hero is Seat 1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]<font color="blue">(8 players)</font>Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Seat 3: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Seat 5: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Seat 8: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Action: Seat 2 brings it in for $1, Seat 3 completes, Seat 4 folds, Seat 5 calls, <font color="CC3333">Seat 7 raises</font>, Seat 8 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Seat 2 folds, Seat 3 calls, Seat 4 folds, <font color="CC3333">Seat 7 caps</font>, all call.

4th Street: (18.50 SB) Hero catches 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Seat 3: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Seat 8: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Action: Hero checks, Seat 3 checks, <font color="CC3333">Seat 7 bets</font>, Seat 8 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Seat 3 folds, <font color="CC3333">Seat 7 3-bets</font>, Seat 8 folds, Hero calls.

5th Street: (12.75 BB) Hero catches 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

<font color="CC3333">Action: Hero bets</font>, Seat 7 calls.

6th Street: (14.75 BB) Hero catches 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

<font color="CC3333">Action: Seat 7 bets</font>, Hero calls.

7th Street: (16.75 BB) Hero catches T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Seat 7 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 18.75 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 18.75 BB, between Hero, Seat 6 and Seat 7.</font>

Anyway, on 3rd street, I was 95% positive he had split Aces. The only other possible holding was a high 3-flush, but that seemed unlikely since so many spades were dead. On 4th, I was positive he had aces, so I was hoping that my kicker would play.

When I didn't improve my aces up on the river, could I fold this? There's no way a raise would fold a better hand, so I didn't even consider it.

Thanks

[timmer]

would you normally fold A's up to a betting pair of 6's that show early aggresion in a mildly aggresive game with a structure that is as fast as party's 3/6 ?

Im thinking no

you have to be best 5.633% to break even here.

the answer is call as he obviously doesnt expect you to have flushed.

[eh923]

[ QUOTE ]
the answer is call as he obviously doesnt expect you to have flushed.

[/ QUOTE ]
I understood what you were saying until this. What do you mean by "flushed"?

The 5.6% sounds so small. On the other hand, I'm still wondering with what hands he could play 3rd and 4th in that same fashion. My only assumption is that he's put me on aces. If that's true, then I'm beat. Otherwise, there's easily a 6% chance I'm ahead.

[MRBAA]

Especially in stud, it doesn't pay to think too much about calling one bet on the river in big pots. You'll lose most of the time, but you'll win often enough in spots like this to make calling worthwhile.

[CJC]

Hello,

[ QUOTE ]
I know that folding a real hand to 1 bet on the river is retarded...but should I on this hand?


[/ QUOTE ]

No...

I will give you the biggest reason why.... ( There are several actually, which I expect several others here to elaborate on.. so I wont bore you [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] ) Anywhoo.. the biggest reason is...

[ QUOTE ]
Party 3/6

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats enough said.. Seriously... There are just too many other damned hands your opponent could have that he/she would play exactly the same way.. NOT to mention that you said you had only been there 6 or 7 hands..

CJ

[eh923]

Thanks, CJC. I've had a rough day at work, and this made me laugh!

[Andy B]

I think I play it about the same, but you want to be careful about building huge pots with dead hands. It appears that the other guy also has split Aces. Your kicker is probably higher than his (although there is a Queen out), so you are probably winning. It is desirable to get it heads-up, but this being Party and all, people just might call all bets, in which case you may hate your hand before long. You did get it heads-up, which is good. By the time the river rolls around, well, you're stuck. If you fold the river without improvement, you should fold sixth, because you're drawing to two outs. The other guy doesn't have to have Aces. He might have some other pair in the pocket, and think that you probably don't have Aces because one is out. Or maybe he's not thinking at all. He's got pocket Kings or whatever, and he knows that's a good hand, so he gets his money in there. If you shade your estimate down to 93%, calling becomes +EV. Do you have a good feel for the difference between 93% and 95%? I sure don't. Just call. The key to winning poker isn't making big laydowns for one bet in a big pot.