Good bubble problem

[J.A.Sucker]

215 SNG. 4 players left.

Big stack (5000) is UTG. I'm on the button w/ 1600. Blinds are 200-400. SB has 230 after posting the blind. BB has the rest. UTG goes all in. I have AKo on the button. My play?

[La Brujita]

Hands like this always drive me crazy.

My standard play is to fold here, I don't know if that is weak tight.

I think a lot of your equity comes from making the cash and then trying to get lucky.

I certainly call with QQ-AA but it is not incredibly unlikely big stack has a pocket pair.

All that being said, if the big stack is playing like a maniac I strongly consider a call.

Best regards

[ihaterivers]

FOLD

[chill888]

Easy fold. Good chance guy has 55 44 66 77 etc. and your a (slight) dog. Even if he has Q10 u hate it. If he flashed Q 10 I'd still fold.

What do you gain if you win? it will be 3 fairly healthy stacks left. You won't have radically improved your chances for even 2nd place.

But if you lose you just threw almost certain minimum 3rd place out the window.

FOLD -- DON'T hesitate, don't worry about it, don't tilt next hand when u get k8o, BUT DO enjoy the fact that you are about to cash - and maybe go on to win.


Regards and gl

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
215 SNG. 4 players left.

Big stack (5000) is UTG. I'm on the button w/ 1600. Blinds are 200-400. SB has 230 after posting the blind. BB has the rest. UTG goes all in. I have AKo on the button. My play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Personally I would call. UTG should be raising a lot of hands in this situation and you have a lot of them dominated. Yes once in a while he will have a pair, but you will win it enough to make it profitable. You only have 4bb yourself and you should be looking for a situation to double up and this is one of them. There is no guarantee that the SB will lose his all in hand and then you are in trouble.

[Tosh]

Has UTG been doing this a lot ? I'd need to know that because if he has been sitting around with his big stack waiting for people to bust the all in probably means he has a pair more than big cards. If he has been pushing in with various hands I am calling because I know I'm likely a pretty big favourite.

[jac394]

[ QUOTE ]
Has UTG been doing this a lot ? I'd need to know that because if he has been sitting around with his big stack waiting for people to bust the all in probably means he has a pair more than big cards. If he has been pushing in with various hands I am calling because I know I'm likely a pretty big favourite.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that a lot of my decision would be based on what the big stack has been doing previously. My decision would be made just like the above quote.

[chill888]

OK, I think this question is worth KNOWING the answer to. So here’s a detailed look at possible scenarios, I know it’s rough and open to (welcomed) criticism but I think it’s useful exercise. Abuse and comments welcome:



First let’s assume big stack is bluffing with 27o.

Remember AK is only about a 2-1 favorite all in vs 27o.

So 33% of time you are OUT.

The other 67% of time, the chip count will be roughly:

Former big stack: 3400
HERO: 3800 (1600x2 + blinds)
Small Stack: 230 (assume he folded out of glee at the 2 all ins)
4th guy: 2570 (assuming this was a 10 player S&G)

You now have (approximately) 38% chance of winning (38% of remaining chips as per sklansky) and lets say about 6% chance of not cashing and, leaving 28% each for 2nd and third. Yes this is VERY VERY rough.

Expected Value (EV) if you call with AK and win
EV = 38% x 1000 + 28% * 600 + 28% * 400+ 0 * 6% = 660

But the 660 only happens 67% of time (when AKo wins).
Therefore EV = 660 * .67 = $440

Now assume big stack has something better than 27o and adjust the EV.

Hero would beat A7 approx 73% of time (depends on the suits)
EV: 660 * 73% = $482

He would beat 44 approx 46% of time (depends on the suits)
EV: 660 * 46% = $304 (yikes)

He would beat AA 6.5% of time
EV: 660 * 6.5% = $43

You get the idea.

Net even if the guys is totally bluffing or has a dominated hand like any ace, the expected value is still not much more than 3rd place itself.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Now, let’s pretend hero is a rock and folds AK. Assume the other player also folded.

Small Stack has either busted by defending his small blind or won the hand and has 1230 (200 SB + 230 + 400 from BB + 430 call from Big stack). We’ll look at both possibilities. I’ll assume that big stack beat small stack 50% of time and small stack wins the other 50% - this is VERY conservative as you must assume that often the all-in of big stack means something.

IF small stack busted:

Chip Count
Big Stack: 5830 (5000 + 600 in blinds + 230)
HERO: 1600
Small stack: 0
4th guy: 2570

Now HERO has 16% chance of 1st and some chance at 2nd and a 100% chance of at least 3rd. I don’t know how to figure his chance of 2nd but lets say he beats 4th guy one third of the remaining time (ie when hero doesn’t win) being 28% and thus is 3rd for remaining 56% of time (probably conservative)

EV = 16% * 1000 + 28% * 600 + 56% * 400 = 160 + 168 + 224 = 552

If Small blind won the hand versus big stack the chip counts would be:

Big stack: 4570
Hero: 1600:
Small stack: 1260
4th Guy: 2570

So hero again has 16% at first and relatively similar chances at 2nd 3rd and 4th although 4th guy is favorite for 2nd. Let’s say hero has 15% chance for 2nd, 39% for 3rd and 30% for 4th. Seems fair and maybe conservative as hero has some chance at 2nd and still has a better chance at 3rd than small stack),

EV = 16% * 1000 + 15% * 600 + 39% * 400 + 0 * 30% = 406


So combine the EV values of when small stacked tripled up and when he busted:


Net EV = 50% * 406 + 50% * 552 = 480.


SUMMARY.
Look I know some of my percentages are quite rough and I would be happy to debate or learn better ways of obtaining them, but I think the exercise is useful. And yes OF COURSE it depends on the players and how tight or loose they are, etc. Although note you’d be far happier if big stack has any ace (dominated by hero’s AK) than a complete bluff like 27o.

Conclusion: I still think it’s a definite fold as the chance of busting out to a small pair or even 27o is just too big a risk to expected value. I think the answer changes the bigger the stack for the guy in last place. But here, even though the blinds are quite large, his stack , he is so close to busting out that you must fold.

Thoughts, abuse and criticism welcome,

regards

[Lori]

For me it depends on the hand number on the level, let's assume it goes to 300-600 on your SB

If you fold here, the SB gets to survive another orbit.

At the end of that orbit, you have committed to folding (Otherwise you'd be playing AK) so you will have 900 chips left.
The SB only needs to win one hand (BB)and then he's paid for yet another orbit whilst you now have 900 in blinds coming up and YOU will be the one who now has to win a hand.

Given this scenario is quite likely, you might as well call with AK.

Also, even if the blinds are remaining at 200-400 for a while, the decent equity in doubling up here probably balances the potential loss because the potential loss is nearer $12-13 than $20, and you will be almost equal chip lead if you win.

If you folded, I don't think it's that bad, but this is one scenario where I don't think you are hurting yourself by calling.

Lori

[Lori]

I love calculations like this and in no way mean to attack your post as I do very similar rough calcs myself from time to time.

In this instance, for the reasons I've stated above, I think that the value of 6% not cashing is rather small and the only difference between my calling and your folding is the difference in this figure.

Lori