Was this a horrible bluff, or was he on crack

[evanski]

5/10 5 handed NL. I lost the hand history, but I will reconstruct well enough. Dealt kcjd in the big. Raised to 35 by utg, one caller in front of me, I call. Flop comes k54 all spades. Utg bets 150 or something to that effect. I put him on an ak or aa without a spade. I call, hoping to either improve or catch another spade so I can bluff him out. Turn is a low spade. Utg has something like 300 left. I lead out for that. He calls rather quickly with AA, no spade. 3 questions: 1. Am I stupid to be attempting something like this in the first place? 2. Is he stupid for calling? 3. Should I have checked the turn and raised if he bet or led out on the river if he checked? (I didnt because I was afraid he would just push it and then I would have to fold). For the purpose of this discussion just assume that I am 100 percent certain in my read of ak or aa with no spade.

[Zag]

From his point of view, I would call you some percentage of the time, between 15% and 100% (hovering around 30%), depending on whether or not I feel you bluff too often.

Consider that he started with just less than 50 BBs. In general, you should be prepared to go to the felt with an overpair when your stack is 50 BBs or less, unless you are really sure you are beaten.

[ QUOTE ]
Utg bets 150 or something to that effect. I put him on an ak or aa without a spade. I call, hoping to either improve or catch another spade so I can bluff him out.

[/ QUOTE ]
This was a terrible call, even if you were SURE that you could bluff him out (which, obviously, you weren't, or at least you weren't correct if you were sure) then you had, at best 15 outs. If he has AK, then you have only 12 outs, and the two remaining kings are going to cost you the additional $300.

So you called $150 to win $250. Note that you have no implied odds because most of your outs count on bluffing him off. Hitting a J does give you implied odds, but we'll offset that by your reverse implied odds for hitting a K and losing. So you are calling at 5-to-3, but your odds of hitting (giving you the most generous interpretation) are 2-to-1 (7 known cards, including your reading of his hand, 15 cards you like, 30 you don't). You only get one chance to hit, because he will probably come out betting on the turn if you miss.

Given your reading, fold the flop. Actually, given your reading, fold pre-flop. KJ is a huge dog to most hands that a tight player would raise UTG. You must read him as very tight if you felt confidant in your read.

[schwza]

i would fold pre-flop and on the flop. if i were him i would definitely fold 100% of the time on turn.

[turnipmonster]

you played this hand horribly. don't call raises with KJo. you can't just put him on no spade because he bet, and you aren't even getting good odds on catching one of your bluffing cards, and it is a terrible spot to bluff in, for a number of reasons. try not to bluff at opponents who don't have a lot of money and seem really committed to their hands, it usually doesn't work out.

--turnipmonster

[turnipmonster]

against someone who plays like our hero did, I sure as hell wouldn't.

--turnipmonster

[creedofhubris]

I think you have to throw away your king jack to a 7x bb raise. You are out of position to boot. I wouldn't play any big cards to a raise that big.

Later on -- is that how you would play a spade draw on that board? He is not giving you odds to draw on the flop, so a real spade (unless it's AK) is going to go allin on the flop and try to push him out there or possibly fold...

I also think that pushing on the turn stinks of bluff. He's only got 200 left, why would the hypothetical big spade give him a chance to make the good fold rather than check/trapping and then betting the river if it goes check-check?

Given the strength your opponent is showing on the flop, your play is especially dangerous if you had been caught bluffing recently.

[NUReedy]

How in the world do you put him on no spade?!?! Did his raise just SCREAM red aces?

[evanski]

Perhaps I did myself a disservice in posting the hand as I did. Reading this again it sounds horrible the way I described it. Let me try and explain my reasoning. I didnt actually put him on AK or AA. He had been raising a lot of hands in the half hour Id been playing with him, trying to run the table over. All I knew was that his bet on the flop reeked of weakness. He had done nothing the entire time except use the bet pot button. This time, he bet 1.5x the pot. I figured he had either an ak or aa without a spade, or some lesser hand. So looking at the hand, I think my KJ has a decent chance of being good. But I dont know it is. I figure I can hedge my bet by bluffing if a spade hits, since Im willing to go down to a showdown anyways. I posted the hand the way I did to try and simplify it to only the issue of bluffing, since I didnt want replies dealing with other aspects. Didnt seem to work out though. Anyways, if anyone rereads this, is this a feasible way to play this?

Evan

[turnipmonster]

when you bluff, in order for it to work you have to present your opponent with a situation where you will actually have a hand sometimes.

when the spade comes on the turn, if you had a big spade you would (and should) check, every single time. there are no free cards that hurt you, and you have an extra street to get the rest of the money (which is barely a pot sized bet) in. furthermore, you may induce a bluff from overplayed AA or AK. any good player and most bad players would check a spade there, as there is no advantage to betting out.

so, most opponents would expect you to check a spade there. but you bet. hmm, what does that mean? probably no spade. if you don't have a spade, what do you have? probably a vulnerable hand like AK or KQ. hence the call.

--turnipmonster

[dsw1977]

On your third point, if you're going to make this move, I simply can't see checking the turn. If you check and he bets $300, you're folding. If you check and he bets $150-200, and you raise him in, do you think he lays down AA or AK for the $100 or so chips he has left? If he bets even less, are you still confident in your bluff?