30-60 Turn Decision

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
"So how can my advice be really really bad?"

because if you are even a little off (say 10% or 20% or something, if judgement of players in a multiway pot can be calculated in percents) the error is pretty bad because the pot is so big.

save the close folds for smaller pots and the close calls for bigger pots. you see?

[/ QUOTE ]
Let's talk numbers. Assume my calculation is correct. If so, your EV when calling is

(4/46)*19 - (42/46)*2 = -.1739 BB

That is, every time you make this call, you lose $10 on average.

Now let's assume my calculation of outs is off by 25% and you actually have 5 outs, not 4. Your EV when calling is

(5/46)*19 - (41/46)*2 = .2826 BB

That is, you make $17 every time you make this call.

This is the whole point of being around 0 EV. Whether you call or not doesn't matter too much. It's only if you assume that I'm way off in my calculation of outs that things begin to look different.

As it stands right now, if my advice to fold is wrong, it's a small error precisely because the EV is so close.

[Michael Davis]

Nobody says you have to call. But practically, I can't see how you are losing more than two more bets on the river, and that's only if the SB has the flush and bets out, which he probably won't if he's not an idiot.

Plus, if you hit your one-outer, you're getting at least four bets on the river and probably closer to an average of six. That is, if they have what they're representing. If they don't, better for you, you might already be winning.

-Michael

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
" What does MP have? He's a good, tight player. He raised preflop, 3-bet the flop, and now raises the turn. The smallest hand he can have is ArKd. There are 3 of those. But he could also have AA or 99, and there are 6 of those. I really can't see him having any other hands here. Maybe KdKr??? But I think that hand would just call."

here this deserves some attention. you are putting preflop raiser on too limited a hand range. he can have something like QdJs sometimes. he can have KdKx and be loving his nut flush draw and big pair still. he can have KdQd or KdJd sometimes. isolating utg limpers w/ good hands is fun and profitable most good mp preflop raisers know that. so you are being too limited in your hand range. what an awful mistake to make in a big pot. AK is not as likely a hand for mp because he shouldnt want to see 4 bets go in on that flop. but you never know i guess.

sb can have other hands as well. he can have a smaller set and wants to see where he's at, he can have A9 and just be aggro. he can have some slowly weirdly played AA. he does most likely have a flush.


[/ QUOTE ]
OK, now we're getting into the heart of the argument. Frankly, I think the probability that MP has QdJs is about zero, but the other hands you mentioned are certainly possible. But if MP has a flush, what does SB have? Also a flush? It may be that SB then has 99.

I gave you my estimate for the number of outs our hero has. I say it's 4. What's your estimate? Without it, we can't really discuss this further.

[ QUOTE ]

i agree it is close but sometimes players do weird things in big pots. this hand is a call for two bets on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
If it's close, then you agree with me that it doesn't really matter whether you call or fold. Flip a coin.

[Michael Davis]

You are leaving out the times he hits quads and his opponent has AA and they go off for 100 bets on the river.

-Michael

[sweetzer]

If the math is that close, doesn't the emotion count for something? Would you rather play the rest of the session knowing that you put in two extra bets with a set, or gave up 21 BB by folding a winning set on the turn? This tilts the odds in favor of calling.

[Diplomatdcm]

You think he will go 100 bets with AA?

[Diplomatdcm]

I think this should be a large facotr and not underestimated.

[mike l.]

"it's a small error"

you dont think i get that? i disagreed with some of your ideas of what mp has.

you are overthinking this. fine let's say you are even EV here. fine. then when you toss your hand and it's good you lose a 20+ bb pot. when you play on and it's bad the most you lose is say 3 bbs. okay fine let's presume it's even EV, it's better to just take that small shot at the 20 bb pot with neutral EV. this is not the place to save bets. very big pots are not the place to save bets.

now let's say you calculate it at neutral EV between folding and calling but youre off by a little bit because you dont know sb or mp as well as you think you do. so you miscalculate and it's +EV (but not greatly by any stretch) to play on with the hand. ok so now you are making a small mistake in a very big pot.

very big pots are rare. pick your close battles well in this game. this is a place to call. the reasons are beyond math, there is EV in winning that big pot feeling good about going home, taking a shot at a bigger game next time, buying your girlfriend something nice and getting laid. +EV extends to all of that stuff big time. winning big pots is more +EV than math alone may tell you.

[mike l.]

"OK, now we're getting into the heart of the argument."

no the heart of the argument is what i said in another post above called "recalculating your EV".

"Frankly, I think the probability that MP has QdJs is about zero,"

so do i. i mistyped and meant to say QdJd. he can have other hands.

i wouldnt sit there and count the pot in this hand so im not going to sit here and give you some number of "outs". i have done that before and i know the routine and i like ed's books idea of estimating outs w/ half outs and stuff. i love it when im in a situation where it's heads up and i know exactly where my opponent is at and i dont have to stress at all i just let simple math take over and sit back and smile. i really love it, it's +EV in and of itself because it gives me an ego boost, makes me think im clever.

what i would do during this hand is i would say wow this sucks but this pot is huge, im going to call and expect to lose. but that's because this is not a 100% sort of scenario and that's almost how certain you have to be in putting these TWO players on hands that both having you sucking wind. i dont know any two players well enough to know im drawing to one out here the vast majority of the time. not even close.

[mike l.]

that's at the heart of what im saying in my post "recalculating your EV".