Using Wilson's Hold'em To Design Starting hands

[mikimaus]

It's a good tool for getting the most correct hands for every type of limit holdem game and situation. It's just that one needs to use it well, understand everything well, and that's not there for a start, one needs all kinds of experience and knowledge, but it's still the god for limit holdem preflop strategy. Note Abdul's site, that's possibly still there (and linked from Wilson's website). There are also pokerroom.com stats you find from their site to compare to.

[Doubling12]

I have done simulations as you suggest. The hands I get are quite different than the ones listed at the top of the thread, and of course are dependant on position, the action before you (unopened, called, raised, 3+ bets), and the particular lineup you choose - even your seat at the table (MP is different when Gypsy is in EP, for example). Doing the study properly is enlightening - you can see how pp's are more playable in LAG games, and suited cts are more playable in loose passive games, etc. without having to take someone's word for it.

[Wahoo91]

and of course are dependant on position, the action before you (unopened, called, raised, 3+ bets)

I was going to mention these things as well. Some hands have an overall negative EV when played from "every" position, but 98s from late position with many callers up front and no raise expected behind should be a +EV call.

How were these scenarios modeled?

[Doubling12]

I took Bret Maverick, and replaced his starting hand pages (all 25 of them) with naive strategies. So, for B1C56, Bret will only play if the pot has not been opened (row 1 in the TTH matrix), he will call (i.e. limp in), and if it is raised or reraised behind, he will call those bets too. B1C5 will call 1 raise back, but fold for 2. I think Abdul Jalib built similar characters. B1C56 plays *all* hands when the pot is unopened when it gets to him. Then I can freeze the button, pick a lineup, and look at the P+L for each starting hand. B2R56 will only play when the pot is raised, he will 3 bet (R=raise), and call back any number of bets behind (only 1 more is possible in this case). Of course far fewer hands are profitable for B2R56 relative to B1C56. I then built Excel sheets that compare P+L for starting hand, position, and whether it is better to limp or raise with it.

The amazing thing is that my findings are very similar to published starting hand list, with the exception that you can open with more hands than most people would suggest, and call raises with *less*. From what I hear about the Party15, this gap concept is understood there.

[SA125]

Brandon - "Some hands are just not profitable so by discarding J10 offsuit, K10 offsuit, A10 offsuit, 9,10 suited, etc.... you can add to your bankroll since these hands are big losers in the long run. anyone care to comment?"

I've found from pokertracker that the range of hands which are profitable over the long run are much smaller than I thought. On the other hand, there is regular play and play out of the blinds. It's two different games.

I don't know if you were talking about blind play also but, especially online, the range of hands that are profitable from the blinds when h/u to a steal are very different from the other positions. As I said, I'm not sure if you were concluding that also.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Brandon:

I haven't read the other posts but your conclusions are way off base.

I suspect that part of the problem, in addition to the fact that TTH in my opinion does a very poor job of representing real poker, is that there are many hands that certainly would be unprofitable if you always played them. But they can still show a substantial long term profit if you choose to play them when the situation is right.

Best wishes,
Mason

[ZeeJustin]

4 limpers to you on the button. You have 88. Are you really folding?

[Trainwreck]

I find 62s a +EV used sparingly 8)

It may not win THAT hand, but sets ppl up for squashing later...

There are so many other variables... Just playing certain hands can be a disaster when you never see ANY of them, or when you do and it's 2 bets to you! K9s is dogshit to 2 bets.

>TW<

[YKing]

The simulation couldn't have taken into account that marginal long run loosing hands (perhaps ATo played in marginal situations) can increase the profit from better hands due to table image. If palying ATo lost 0.05* BB/hand in the long run it would still be profitable if playing it increased your winnings with AKo with 0.06* BB/hand. True?

*Figures and examples are totally taken out of the air.

[PukaPlaya]

Maybe in a full ring game depending on position this is correct. In a shorthanded S&G situation or heads up I think you need to expand this list considerbly.

If you can limp in late position with 33 and you hit your set that wouldn't be worth it?