Which is more likely to happen?? They both hurt!

[zeero3]

Two hands that can cripple a poker player are (1) Having a high overpair ON THE FLOP and running into a flopped set and (2) Having AK and running into Aces-up ON THE FLOP.

I was wondering if anyone could figure-out (or maybe already knows) the probability it is for someone to flop these hands while you hold those certain hands.

I wonder if it is more likely someone will set against my overpair or flop aces-up against my AK???

Thanks in advance for any help.

[Nottom]

I won't go into the math, but when you have an overpair agaisnt a smaller pair, he will flop a set much more often then Ax will flop 2-pair against AK.

Basically the pair only has to flop a 2-outer (while you miss your set) but the Ax has to not only catch a 2-outer (the A) but also catch a 3-outer.

Of course its more likely an opponent would hold Ax than a pair, but I don't think it makes up the difference. I'm sure someone will come in and do all the math shortly to prove all this though.

[daryn]

plus if someone hits his/her set against your big pair, you basically have to hit your 2 outer to win, but if someone flops 2 pair against your AK, you could hit a 3 outer (K) or maybe he gets counterfeited.