2345 on board, turn decision

ethan · #1 08-26-2004, 09:05 PM

Fairly early on in a party 20+2, and I don't have notes on anyone involved. MP3 seems maybe a little loose.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP1 (t2575)
MP2 (t655)
MP3 (t675)
CO (t695)
Button (t795)
SB (t705)
Hero (t775)
UTG (t100)
UTG+1 (t1025)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t60, UTG+1 calls t60, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls t60, CO calls t60, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls t30.

Flop: (t315) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t30, UTG+1 calls t30, MP3 calls t30, CO calls t30, Hero calls t30.

Turn: (t465) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t10 (All-In), UTG+1 bets t70, MP3 raises to t585 (All-In), CO calls t585, Hero...

The turn gives me a wheel and the nut flush draw, but at best I'm freerolling another wheel given the action to me on the turn. I'm getting around 3:1 on my all-in if UTG+1 comes along, and a little over 2:1 otherwise. If someone has a 6, then I have 9 outs to win and the non-club sixes probably split the pot. If no one does, then pushing here is hugely profitable.

push/fold?

Phill S · #2 08-26-2004, 09:14 PM

bahh.

im unhappy, but im calling all in here.

its a high likelyhood your facing a 5 high straight split. maybe someone has a 6, but im doubting it enough to be a call. trips is possible, but if its there, who cares.

plus if you hit your flush who cares more so. if you lose, move on to the next one. i see no reason not to call unless your absolutely sure youll make the money if you fold (this is theoretical by the way, you can never be 100% sure).

Phill

gergery · #3 08-26-2004, 09:57 PM

Close call. Probably fold is best, but since its close and this is low buy-in, call.

You are getting almost 3:1 on your money right now, 4:1 if UTG comes in, as is very likely. And your chances of hitting the flush are alittle better than 4:1. Since this is low buyin, you could be up against all kinds of [censored]. Worst case is some yahoo doing this with Kxclubs and two of your outs are gone.

Phill S · #4 08-26-2004, 10:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Worst case is some yahoo doing this with Kxclubs and two of your outs are gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

thats so not the worst case scenario.

but you still should call

Phill

ethan · #5 08-27-2004, 02:10 AM

You're right on the odds...I got them wrong in the post, but had them right while I was thinking through the decision.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP1 (t2575)
MP2 (t655)
MP3 (t675)
CO (t695)
Button (t795)
SB (t705)
Hero (t775)
UTG (t100)
UTG+1 (t1025)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t60, UTG+1 calls t60, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls t60, CO calls t60, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls t30.

Flop: (t315) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t30, UTG+1 calls t30, MP3 calls t30, CO calls t30, Hero calls t30.

Turn: (t465) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t10 (All-In), UTG+1 bets t70, MP3 raises to t585 (All-In), CO calls t585, Hero raises to t685 (All-In), UTG+1 folds, CO calls t20 (All-In).

River: (t2420) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players, 4 all-in)

Final Pot: t2420
Main Pot: t515 (t515), between MP3, CO, Hero and UTG. > Split: MP3 (t128.75), CO (t128.75), Hero (t128.75), UTG (t128.75).
Pot 2: t1785 (t1785), between MP3, CO and Hero. > Split: MP3 (t595), CO (t595), Hero (t595).
Pot 3: t40 (t40), between CO and Hero. > Split: CO (t20), Hero (t20).
Pot 4: t80 (t80), returned to Hero.

Hero shows Ac Qc (straight, six high).
UTG shows Kd Kh (straight, six high).
MP3 shows 6d Jd (straight, six high).
CO shows 9s As (straight, six high).
Outcome: Hero wins t823.75. CO wins t743.75. MP3 wins t723.75. UTG wins t128.75.

That's right. All that for 49 extra chips. No idea what UTG was doing hanging around, or why MP3 was in the hand to begin with. MP3 proceeded to call us all stupid and lucky.

fatduck · #6 08-27-2004, 02:44 AM

I love UTGs bet of t30 on the flop with KK, rofl.

ethan · #7 08-27-2004, 03:18 AM

edit - wait a minute, I know why UTG was still there. He only had 40 chips on the flop and was all-in.

I'm real clever.