44 button hand

Chris Daddy Cool · #1 08-25-2004, 06:00 AM

Party 2/4

5 limpers to me. I raise on the button with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB folds. BB calls. 5 limpers call. 7 of us to the flop for 14 sb.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks. UTG checks. UTG+1 checks. MP checks. LP checks. CO checks. I check. 7 of us to the turn for 7 bb.

Turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB bets. UTG calls. UTG+1 folds. MP folds. LP calls. CO folds. I call. 4 of us to the river for 11 bb.

River: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB bets. UTG folds. LP calls. I raise.

bakku · #2 08-25-2004, 06:09 AM

I like it all the way, I still can't bring myself to raise small PP's from the button though I know I should.

MarkL444 · #3 08-25-2004, 06:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
though I know I should.

[/ QUOTE ]

says?

easypete · #4 08-25-2004, 08:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
though I know I should.

[/ QUOTE ]

says?

[/ QUOTE ]

My math may not be good, bet let's take a look.

Odds of flopping a set:

2*C(49,2)/C(50,3) = .12 (or 7.3:1).

Odds of getting the set by the turn:

2*C(49,3)/C(50,4) = .16 (or 5.25:1).

If you are in LP with just limpers ahead, raising here will probably buy you a turn card. You improve your chances to win and is +EV with this many limpers (if checked to you on the flop). If you get your set on the flop, more power to you, they may put you on high cards.

BTW, the who that said it, I believe, was Sklansky.

sthief09 · #5 08-25-2004, 10:49 AM

with 5 limpers, plus blinds, this is an incredibly easy raise. he got set value by raising, and he got a 4th community card. the raise won him the pot.

sthief09 · #6 08-25-2004, 10:50 AM

I agree with the raise, but your math doesn't include the 25% or so of the time that your set gets cracked and ends up costing you ~6 BB.

easypete · #7 08-25-2004, 10:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the raise, but your math doesn't include the 25% or so of the time that your set gets cracked and ends up costing you ~6 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

My math also doesn't include the 5% of the time you can bet out the turn unimproved and win ~30 BB [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

.05(30)-.25(6)=0

sthief09 · #8 08-25-2004, 11:00 AM

what?

BassMan712 · #9 08-25-2004, 11:07 AM

More importanly, assuming he didn't have the best hand at the turn, the raise pre-flop put enough extra $$$ to allow him to draw out on the river.

sthief09 · #10 08-25-2004, 11:29 AM

well, 44 is a terrible drawing hand, since most of the time, you're drawing to 2 outs, so I wouldn't consider extra money in the pot for drawing odds a good thing. the fact that you entice people to draw to a pair, or call any pair, and get a free turn card are the only reasons I see for raising.