How to play the bitch-straight?

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that I hit the monster and still lost makes me re-evaluate alittle bit my preflop call. Before this hand I was with Soss for sure – I call very often. After, I’m more with MBE – call probably correct but its closer, as I have to factor in losing my stack the small % of time I get a monster but hit a bigger monster.


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I think there's a subtle point to be made. Flopping a set is a +EV situation. Flopping a straight, even the wrong end of it, is a +EV situation. Flopping two pair, even bottom 2 pair, is a +EV situation.
Are any of these situations unbeatable? No, of course not. However, the only thing you can try to do in a MTT is consistantly put yourself in +EV situations. Therefore, I think you need to evaluate the preflop call in terms of how many times you are going to flop a +EV situation vs. how much the pot is laying you. That's it. The rest is just luck.

[fnurt]

The thing about implied odds is that it's not enough for your opponent to have a big stack. You must also have confidence that you will get a lot of it. Neither the button's limp or the BB's check shows a lot of interest in the hand. Sure, you'll get action if the flop is K32 and one of them has KQ, but that's only a small subset of the times you flop 2 pair or better. A lot of times, you will hit a big hand and they will simply fold and give you nothing.

You need a pretty remarkable situation to win someone's whole stack here, so I really think you can't count on such huge implied odds.

[gergery]

I agree with this, and maybe we’re just splitting hairs. I am also not being results-oriented, as I’m happy getting my money all-in 3-handed when there are only two possible hands that can beat me.

I’m doing a little decision tree in my head for times that I call that goes something like
 flop nothing or little piece with tough board and fold – lots of time, have little loss
 flop alittle piece with not too worrisome board – alittle bit of time, slightly positive EV
 flop monster – rarely, but win big. Big EV

I multiple out cost of call times expected results adjusted for # occurrences and have an EV result for 32o in this situation. Losing this hand just makes me add (well, remember) a little subnote to third bullet them says, O flops bigger monster, I lose everything. So my aggregate EV for this hand goes down just a bit.

--Greg

[Annie Duke]

I personally would not call this hand out of the small blind because of the negative implied odds of playing 23. That being said--I like the check on the flop assuming that you have some aggression behind you.

The bet on the turn I personally think is too small. The pot on the turn is 1800 and you are only bet 700 which basically gives a great price to anyone who just made a draw since you are betting well less than half the pot. A bet of at least 3/4 of the pot or more would make more sense here.

On the river I think your bet is too big as it is hard for anything but two pair to call you here. I like you thinking that is makes it look bluffy which may induce a call but often times leaving yourself with a little money looks mroe bluffy as your opponent will perceive that as you wanting to prevent yourself from going broke if you get caught bluffing--so I would overbet but leave myself with something. Say a bet of 4500. That looks more bluffy to me.

JMO of course.

Annie

[SossMan]

23o has negative implied odds? Why? Do you think you'll go broke if you flop a 2? I think its a hand that is very easy to get away from when you flop a pair. The preflop call was so small in relation to the stacks, that he has the odds to flop 2 pair or better, which is clearly a +EV situation 3 handed.
I tend to think that A8 or QT or K9 are hands that have more negative implied odds.

nice to see you posting on the strategy forum, Annie.

[t_perkin]

[ QUOTE ]

A little better than checkraising would be to bet the flop, hoping to get raised so you could reraise. There's an important "meta" reason why I prefer this: we're playing three-handed, so lots of times when the flop misses me I am going to be betting out in first position as a bluff or semibluff. I want my opponents to know, for future reference, that I might have flopped a monster when I bet the flop from the small blind.
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Yes I suppose it is dependent on your table image. If you are regularly betting out of the SB (which I am no criticising at all) then yes betting again here seems sensible.

I tend not to bet out of the SB so much, possibly a failing. So with my image a bet here will take the pot down there and then too often, which I think would be a real pity here.
We have invested very little, the pot is not that big, if we have to give it up on the turn after a failed check-raise then it is really not the end of the world.

With the laggy bb I would go for the check raise here, you might even trap the button, and yes I would make it a big one. I take back the comment about waiting for the turn, that would be a mistake.
Do you think this is a bad play? or just not as good as a bet looking for a raise?
How much do you bet here?
If you do get to reraise are you looking to raise the player out of the hand then and there?

tim

[Tosh]

I think you should only complete here if your opponents play weak postflop. I don't see the relevance of how easy it is to get away from 1 pair, you really don't have the odds IMO. You have 30x your call left behind, which would be approximately your odds of flopping 2 pair+ but its hard to see how you get all of some else's stack in an unraised pot on a board where you have a good hand with 32o. Also, sometimes your 2 pair will get counterfeited and you'll lose anyway.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see the relevance of how easy it is to get away from 1 pair, you really don't have the odds IMO.

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I was referring to Annie's claim of "negative implied odds". I would call here almost every time unless the BB is uuber aggressive.

[SossMan]

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but its hard to see how you get all of some else's stack in an unraised pot on a board where you have a good hand with 32o

[/ QUOTE ]

That may be true. But you will often see people 'value' betting w/ a medium overpair or TPTK or an OESD or check to you and let you hit a gutter or OESD. As long as I know I play well postflop, I think completing here is fine.
23o has potential to make a monster hand.

[t_perkin]

You have to factor in the benefit of showing your opponents that they cannot limp and get heads up.
You are probably going to get a few more opportunities to be first in on the SB.
Plus you do of course give away less information if you complete with every hand as opposed to just some hands. Depending on how few hands you complete on this could be quite significant.

Just some thoughts


Tim