Tough decision with 20 players left in Stars $22 NLHE

[Rick Diesel]

I tried to put myself in his shoes, and decided to rule out KK and AA, being that I would not raise all-in with those hands because I would want some callers. This leaves the range of hands that dominate me as QQ, JJ, and TT. Hands that I dominate that he could make this play with include 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22 and A8-A2 suited. Many other possible holdings are coin flips where I am slightly favored.

Based on this, I decided to call. Both blinds folded, and the opponent turned over TT. No 9 to my rescue, and I was crippled. Ended up in 17th.

Thanks to all that replied. Please feel free to further critique my thought process here if you can.

Rick Diesel

[betgo]

I would call. You are risking T20K to win T48K. The raise is 5xBB, so the raiser does not have to have a big hand. He could have a bigger pair, but he could also have a smaller pair or maybe A8 or less or a suited connector. He probably does not have AA or KK, since he would make a miniraise or limp. He probably has two overcards, in which case you have a slight advantage.

You are getting 7-5 on your money. Tou cannot expect to be on average more than a 7-5 underdog. Gambling to double up is to your advantage, since you want to win or atleast make the top 5.

[THaDoCTa]

I agree with everyone else's line on this one - if he was a short stack then you can call hoping to be in a coinflip for not so large a % of your stack. However with his stack size I would think its a clear fold even if you want to jump up in chips to be in position to win... In general it's not good to call your chips into situations where you're either a slight favorite or a huge dog. Although it happens, rarely will someone pull this move with a hand that you can beat, 88s-22s. Definitely you can wait for a better spot to get your chips in.

[fnurt]

You need JJ or better to call here. 99 is nowhere near good enough. TT would be a coin flip.

Of course, you were probably looking for people to respond BEFORE seeing the results, weren't you.

[Sundevils21]

I fold here with 99,1010, probably JJ.
Interesting side question...
Should he call if he had AJoffsuit?
My answer is probably yes.
(Strange I would fold JJ and probably call with AJ?)

[adanthar]

I think 99 is just outside my range. TT would be better but JJ is the worst hand I'd auto call with.

I would *not* call with AJ, as SB and BB are not guaranteed to fold AK or AQ here.

Edit: Also, considering you can dominate your table, stealing is much higher EV than calling.

[cferejohn]

Pretty read-dependent. There are certainly players against whom I would call this in an instant. Probably a fold against an unknown. If it was an LP raiser, I call in a heartbeat.

Someone (think it was fnurt) said they would lay down TT. I don't think I would do that here. He's got 5x the BB. He's desperate. If I'm him, I'm pushing with most pairs and maybe the better 1/2 of aces (66/A8 and better, say), plus KQ, and possibly JK if I think the table is tight.

[gergery]

Turn this situation around. You are UTG+2 with 20k and 5xBB, blinds at 2k/4k, you know what the prize structure is and play to maximize $EV. You have 14 hands before you are down to less than 2xBB.

What do you push with?

Get the answer on that and maybe your decision to call/fold becomes clearer. Personally, it seems like he could have a wide range of holdings as Rick notes above.

Net, I think this is a pretty close decision, depending primarily on how much folding equity your next push will get you, and on balance I’d prefer to get my money in first next hand. I think calling is definitely +CEV here vs. his range of hands (most often you’re risking 20k to win 28k as a likely 54/46 favorite), but pushing next hand is probably higher CEV (likely to pick up 8k without a fight).

--Greg

[durron597]

Good point. I wouldn't push with most hands that 99 dominates with the possible exception of A9/A8 depending on the tightness of the table and 88 (almost definitely). However there is a very wide range of hands that I would push with that are a coinflip or worse to 99; any ace that's a coinflip, KQ/KJ, and any bigger pocket pair. I think that logic makes me lean towards fold 99, make TT borderline, and autocall with JJ (as several posters have already stated [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).

[Boris]

I think you made the correct play and I like your attitude of going for the top three in these small buy-in tournaments.