Pick your turn play

[Tosh]

Party 15/30 game, TAG UTG raises, unknown cold calls and you 3 bet AKo. BB calls 2 more and UTG caps, all call. Flop is 632r (suits aren't really relevant so I won't mention them again). UTG bets, Unknown cold caller calls, as you do and BB folds.

Turn is a king, UTG bets, unknown raises.

[AdamL]

UTG capping says a big pocket pair, I think. If it's AA or KK, you're losing. If you think he'd cap with QQ you can call, but otherwise it looks like a fold situation. If you call the raise you're probably going to see UTG three bet it behind you.

Comments?

[Garland]

Sounds like a couple of people hit their Ks. But you have the best kicker.

3-bet the turn and call down to any further aggression.

Garland

[BassMan712]

I don't like this, but i think a 3-bet is correct.

Hopefully, at worst, unknown has AK for a split and UTG has QQ/JJ.

[willie24]

i think you have to 3-bet. fold is out of the question. i would not raise the river.

what about folding on the flop? would hate to with such a big pot but there is a good chance that some of your 6 outs are no good - and a fair chance that none of them are good.

[willie24]

the more i think about it the more appealing it is to just call. if utg has AA you gain nothing by raising. if utg has jj you might gain a small amount by raising - but you likely lose- because he will likely fold to 2 raises. assuming the unknown also has ak i think you should just call. i think the chances of him having something like kq are not good enough to warrant a 3-bet

[StellarWind]

I think there is a huge risk that Unknown coldcaller has flopped a set. It fits his play very well. Certainly he may be playing an outkicked king, but with a hand like KJ this would be the third street in a row that he has butchered.

UTG could have AA (3 hands), KK (1 hand), AK (6 hands), QQ (6 hands), and maybe worse hands like AQs and JJ.

Raising will not help us win and does not offer value given our dicey winning chances. I call.

I assume that TAG recognizes us and will respect the meaning of this coldcall. If he insists on 3-betting anyway and Unknown caps, I expect to be in last place and fold.

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there is a huge risk that Unknown coldcaller has flopped a set...

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think there is enough evidence of that yet. I think there's enough reasonable evidence that the unknown cold-caller is raising with something like AK, KQ and KJ that 3-betting the turn makes it worthwhile.

Now if UTG folds/calls and unknown cold-caller 4-bets, that's a different situation all together. I might consider folding if UTG is committed to the pot at this point.

Garland

[arkady]

I am calling;
IF UTG 3 bets - I would consider folding, but he could just as well have AKs, but if unknown has a set he is probably capping the turn and you can let go right there.

IF UTG calls - I raise the river and fold to a reraise (assuming river goes, UTG check, unknown bets).

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
I am calling;
IF UTG 3 bets - I would consider folding, but he could just as well have AKs, but if unknown has a set he is probably capping the turn and you can let go right there.

IF UTG calls - I raise the river and fold to a reraise (assuming river goes, UTG check, unknown bets).

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this line of thinking but I think the river play is too aggressive. This is 15/30, so i'm thinking these guys are solid players.