hand from a Foxwoods Act III tournament

[jsmith5]

Foxwoods offers three levels of satellites to qualify for a $10K seat in this fall's WPT event. Act I is a $60 one-table event where the top three move onto Act II. You can buy into Act II for $150, which is another one-table satellite. The winner goes onto Act III, and 2nd and 3rd get into another Act II. Act III is a multi-table tournament where the top 10% get a $10K seat.

By the end of the first two levels of the Act III, I had nearly tripled my stack to around T8000. I hand only played a few hands, but made the most out of them. However, I ran into a couple monsters, and my set of 2's ran into a set of 8's (thankfully I smelled that one and got away from it).

So by the end of the 4th level, I'm down to just under 3K. MP raises to 600 (100/200 blinds with 25 ante). He seemed to be a tight player who had only been in a few pots. I had position with pocket 88, and decided to call because I thought I could outplay him after the flop.

I watched his reaction to the flop as it came down J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. He looked at the flop, then looking directly at me picked up his stack of chips, set them down hard in front of him and declared, "I'm all-in."

I immediately asked "So do you have AK or AJ?" just to get a reaction. He didn't say anything but just started ahead.

Normally this seems like a pretty easy laydown, but it would end up leaving me very short-stacked, with blinds and antes about to go up again (and raising every 20 mins). I only had 600 invested, but I felt like he was making a move to buy the pot.

Would you lay down your 8-8 here? Do you put him on an overpair or AK? Or do you think he's just trying to buy the pot and push you off a flush draw? Is it worth the gamble if you figure he's on a bluff?

[nycgeoff]

Disclaimer: I'd like to know how far away you are from qualifying, and whether you had this other player covered.

That being said, I would lay this down. Maybe I get away from middle pairs too easily, but:

a. an overcard came on the flop
b. your read on him is that he's a tight player
c. at 100/200, it's a little early for an all-in bluff
d. his play screams, to me, "over pair"

[MilwaukeeBull]

I would say he has you beat at this point. Though his bet looks like he is trying to buy, I wouldn't test him yet as you say he has been playing tight. I would put him on having JJ. Toss the 8s. Move on to the next hand.

[GrinningBuddha]

Thoughts:

- 20%+ of your stack is too much to pay to see a flop you might not like. Either fold or push here. If you're asking what to do once the flop hits, you are having trouble "outplaying him after the flop", right? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

- In theory, two signs of bluffing are looking at your opponent and moving your chips in aggressively. He's more likely to have AK/AQ than AJ here. Either that, or he has AA and isn't messing around.

- How many chips does he have? If your 3K is a quarter of his stack for instance, his move in is more likely to be a bluff. He wants the chips to intimidate you.

- If I found myself in this situation somehow, I'm calling. I give myself a better than 60% chance to be ahead at this point. Hope he doesn't catch up.

[SossMan]

Side note: I found this line funny

...and my set of 2's ran into a set of 8's (thankfully I smelled that one and got away from it).
I guess if by "smelling it out" you mean that, lucky for you, there was a board that looked like this:
2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

then congrats on a "nice" read. I wouldn't make a habit of fearing set over set, though.

On to the hand:
A preflop raise to 3x from a tight player in MP when you have 15x and you have 88? No thank you.

You don't have enough chips to "outplay" him unless flopping a set is outplaying someone.
Given that you did call, I would fold pretty easily here. Best case scenario, he has just AK or AQ w/ no clubs. Worst case is he has a set of jacks and you're dead. Almost as bad are his probable TT,QQ,KK,AA. Even A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] would be pretty bad for you since he would have 15 outs twice (you would be about a 55/45 dog). Based on the read you gave, and the flop action, I put him on TT or Ak [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Chalk this one up to a preflop mistake and get to the next hand...you still have 12x to work with and plenty of time to get a better situation.

good luck,

-sossman

[BAD BEAT POLICE]

I CAN SEE WHERE THIS IS HEADED....SEEN IT A MILLION TIMES BEFORE. YOU ARE TREADING ON THIN ICE HERE....YOU CAN STILL MAKE UP THE RESULTS, YOU KNOW.

-BAD BEAT POLICE [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Pretty much without a doubt, this hand was fold or all-in preflop.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)