What would you have put this player on?

[darcythepug]

I hope to get some great advice from you 2+2'ers -- thanks in advance.

In a $75 buyin no rebuy tournament with 110,000 chips in play the other night -- I have a very tight table image, playing less than one hand an orbit and have not lost a pot all night at showdown always showing TPTK, trips or better and because of this have won a few pots when the flop missed everyone and I bet from around back. Down to last there tables (27 players) -- Top 18 paid but real money doesn't start until the Top 6. I am about 10th overall in chip position with about 8,000 chips. Blinds are 200-400 with 50 ante.

I am dealt AQs in MP, I raise $1,600. MP+1, who just sat down at the table and I haven't seen him before, moves all in over the top with about 12,000 in chips. Everyone folds and it is back to me. I think for a while and fold.

This player then aggressively runs over the table and calls a very solid player's all in (she had KK) with 66 even though it meant risking half his stack - he catches a 6 on the river but that is beside the point. I later spoke with the solid player at the break and she said that he is a habitual bluffer and goes all-in with less than premium hands.

In the moment, do you fold AQs if someone you have no read on moves all-in on you, especially as he also has no read on me since he is new to the table. Do you have to give him credit for AA-QQ or AK?

Thanks so much as this fold has been troubling me.

Darcythepug

[pheasant tail (no 18)]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have to give him credit for AA-QQ or AK?

Thanks so much as this fold has been troubling me.



[/ QUOTE ]

Suppose you knew that he had 22. Do you want to call here w/ a fair stack and a good shot at money? Your position sucks and a lot of "worse" hands spank you much of the time. Not a rhetorical question.

I would usually muck and let a probable AJ or A4 (whatever) take the pot. They earned it. They will get snapped soon enough.

AQs is no premium hand on the bubbble. "Premium" meaning that it is worth calling all chips PF. If this guy is really such a joker and you KNOW that he is, maybe you call. I hate calling big bets w/ AQ, even suited.

[M.B.E.]

The real question is what pot odds do you need to call an unknown player's allin reraise when you have AQs. You have to guess at what range of hands this player would reraise with, calculate the probability distribution of hands in the range given that you are holding AQs (for example, there are six ways your opponent could have KK but only three ways he could have AA), and then compute the pot equity of AQs against that distribution.

Most likely your pot equity against the distribution of hands an average opponent would reraise allin with is something like 0.4, which implies that you can call with pot odds greater than 1.5:1.

However, I'd say that you need pot odds of 1.6:1 or more, taking into account that you're close to the bubble, although that isn't a huge factor because, as you said, the real money does not start until sixth place.

The amount you stand to win is 10700 (1100 of blinds and antes, the 1600 you put in, and 8000 from your opponent's stack) while it will cost you 6400 to call. That's pot odds of 1.67:1 so I'd say call.

[The4thFilm]

It really doesn't matter what he has, fold your hand. Don't flip coins with maniacs.

[lolita16]

I would fold. When the player is unknown and you have a troublesome, often beat and dominated hand, I don't think this is even a close decision. He's still alive at the final three tables, so he does something well.

Regards-

[fnord_too]

With no read I fold.
If I know he is a maniac I call (I think I am giving up too much if I fold in this case, and will not be able to play any but the biggest hands in the future when he is yet to act).
If I know he is anything but a maniac, I fold.

[derek2455]

I fold. You dont want to risk your tournament on a coinflip and with no read on the player who realy knows what he has.

[fnurt]

The only reason you are second-guessing yourself is because of what you learned about the player after the fact. Based upon what you knew at that time, I have no doubt that your decision was sound.

[gergery]

With that read, I call him. Without that read it’s a good fold. But why raise 4xBB if you are going to fold? Better off calibrating down to whatever will get them to fold. Often that’s 2.5xbb-3xbb, particularly since stacks are not very high in relation to blinds.

And AQ is only a coinflip vs. a lower pair. You are well ahead of weaker aces and lower cards. If you knew he had something like KJ, AT, 97s I call every time.

--Greg