Good Read-Bad Luck--Was this the right play?

[Steverino2]

Piggs Peak .25/.50 NL

I'm UTG w/ AQo- stack is $12--I raise 1.50

Folded to LP player who reraises all in ($9)

Against anyone else I would fold here but I have seen this
player over play hands like KJ QT etc--he could have anything here--I feel the odds are good I have the best hand so I call (everyone else folded to me)

He has KQ and spikes his K on the turn to take the pot

My question is: Even if you have a good read on someone should you make a call like this?- really hate to play a big pot preflop w/o AA KK or maybe AKs--Is the proper play to fold, even against this poor player, and grind it out against him getting his $$ eventually? Thanks

Steve

[TwoShedsJackson]

I wouldn't raise or even call with AQo UTG unless I knew every player at the table was rubbish.

[Leo Bello]

When you go all-in with AQ, you are aiming to make TPTK or get luck on flop. The greatest problem is that normally when you go all-in you are aiming at something more than TPTK. Normally a set or better. If your opponent comes out with a pair, he is leading you.

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=427150
pokenum -h as qh - ks qc
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Qh 1271286 74.24 421475 24.61 19543 1.14 0.748
Ks Qc 421475 24.61 1271286 74.24 19543 1.14 0.252

In that specific case, you were even favorite to win, and it was a matter of luck.

[GoSox]

Leo Where do you get even favorite on 75% to 25% ?? I read that as 3:1. If anyone goes allin heads up aiming to get a set or better to win then I want them in my game !! That's not even close to +EV.

If your opponent comes out with a pair, he is NOT leading you. His hand is dominated, half the pairs he makes (queens) are moot since they give a pair to AQ as well with higher kicker. That means KQ only has three outs !! Not to mention that his K high flush would be beaten by the A high flush.

This is a great matchup and he should have called.

[Daann]

If he would do this with QT and crap like that, then call, you will be favorite more than enough times to compensate for the times that he does pulls out something that crushes you.