5/10NL Hand v. AJo

[Ulysses]

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My guesses are he's either got A-Q or 10-10.

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Why on earth do you think he would bet $250 on the river w/ TT?

[Tosh]

Something like KQs makes more sense to me. Interested to know what he had.

[Chazbot2000]

Just trying to think of hands somebody would call a preflop raise cold and then act like they did on the flop and turn. Guess you're right, if it is 10-10, you'd check the river. Now it HAS to be AQ right? Or your opponent is super fishy to be calling a UTG raise with A-10 or below.

[Ulysses]

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Now it HAS to be AQ right?

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No. AQ is a possibility, but it's far more likely that he has one of two hands. Nothing or a jack.

[Nero]

This is a pretty standard line to take with a made hand out of position. You have a hand that isnt vulnerable if ahead, and has little chance of improving if behind.

If all the money goes in on the flop or turn I would much rather have his hand. You cant really do anything other than check and make your read on both these streets.

Occasionally i might make a weak-lead on the river of say $80-$100, but that really does little to change things.

btw, I really hate his $250 bet amount on the river. A push or $400 seem like much better choices. Are you folding KK,QQ for $250 on the river?

[Matt Flynn]

ni han.

matt

[Chazbot2000]

What kind of nothing could this guy rationally have after calling your preflop raise cold?

Similarly, what kind of jack could he have after calling your raise? KJ? Even that is quite loose. He definintely didn't play this like he had a killer hand like AJ (unless he's really crafty at representing a weak hand).

Oh, AK for a split pot seems reasonable too.

What DID he actually have? I give up trying to guess this.

[Ulysses]

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What kind of nothing could this guy rationally have after calling your preflop raise cold?

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After the turn, I was pretty sure he either had a gutshot straight draw on the flop (something like KQ) or a Jack.

[Ulysses]

He had QJo.

[turnipmonster]

I don't think it's particularly important to put AJo on a specific hand like AQo here. I think it's more important, when putting someone on a hand, to rule out certain classes of hands. we don't know for certain what he has, but we know with a pretty good degree of certainty that he does not have a medium strength hand. our read is that he is either quite strong or very weak (i.e. bluffing).

we win when he is very weak, and lose when he is quite strong. so, really the only thing that matters is does he have a jack or not? we can all construct plenty of hands that do or do not contain a J that are possible. figuring out which of those hands isn't important. he could have 56s here for all we know.

personally I just do not see an aggressive player checking the turn with an A here, especially against another aggro player who will probably try and take the pot on the river if he thinks AJo is weak. so I do not think he has an A.

--turnipmonster