Protecting your hand question

[Saborion]

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Hmm, guess not. If I count 4 Q's and 2 7's as outs, I only need about 7:1. But I should still fold because everyone knows my 6-outers never hit, only my opponents' do

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I'd love to have 4 Q's outs in addition to my 2 7's here.

[Randy Burgess]

Aren't you throwing off your outs calculations by assuming that his three-bet would always mean he has a made hand that beats you, e.g. a big pocket pair?

You may think that because he's out of position he's not going to play back at you--but if he's a strong player (or even LAG) he is looking at the same board you're looking at, and may conclude you are putting a bit of a play on him. This increases the chance he will play back at you, especially if he has a read on you as someone who likes to make "smart" folds. My guess is that this sort of thing is more common in live games, but obviously it happens online too.

[PotatoStew]

I've been thinking about this whole scenario a lot the past couple of days. Some additional questions:

1. If it's checked to you (say the preflop raiser checks, or maybe he's acting after you instead) do you bet out with your second pair? Or just check? It seems a bet alone is unlikely to drive out the non-raising players and therefore wouldn't limit the field.

2. If nearly everyone calls your raise (or even only one or two extra people), you are unimproved on the turn, and the preflop guy bets out again, are we raising again? Or is it time to toss the hand?

3. Is this the sort of play where (for example) 4 out of 5 times it'll fail and you'll showdown a losing second pair, but then when you win on the 5th time it makes up for it?

[fsuplayer]

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If everyone folds, the preflop raiser 3-bets you, and you call, the pot will now contain 8 big bets. The turn is the 2 . When he bets, you are getting 9-to-1. Should you fold?



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Hmm, guess not. If I count 4 Q's and 2 7's as outs, I only need about 7:1. But I should still fold because everyone knows my 6-outers never hit, only my opponents' do


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I'd love to have 4 Q's outs in addition to my 2 7's here.


[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking the exact same thing. I am just to the part of SSHE talking about "Partial Outs", isnt this one of those situations.

I'd say your Q outs are good much more than 50% of the time, but certainly not everytime. So you could maybe count those as 75%-80% outs. There are also the time or two where you may hit a Q or 7 and still lose if he has QJs, QQ, or JJ.

So if you have 5 outs and they will win maybe 85% of the time, I would say you have 4 "outs" and need about 8 or 9-1 with your implied odds on the river, so I call.


Plus I prefer to call when its very close bc simply its more fun.

fsuplayer

[Griffin]

I'm the person least qualified to answer your questions, but I'm going to try because it will help me think this through.

I've been thinking about this whole scenario a lot the past couple of days.

So have I. I have two other posts I plan to make on issues related to the protect your hand move. It represents a radical change in the way I play.

1. If it's checked to you (say the preflop raiser checks, or maybe he's acting after you instead) do you bet out with your second pair? Or just check?

You bet. Checking allows someone with T7 to bet and scare you out of the pot. You bet because you want the next guy, holding J3, to question his kicker and fold. You bet because it was checked to you and you have a marginal hand that needs protecting.

It seems a bet alone is unlikely to drive out the non-raising players and therefore wouldn't limit the field.

But not betting has zero chance of limiting the field

2. If nearly everyone calls your raise (or even only one or two extra people), you are unimproved on the turn, and the preflop guy bets out again, are we raising again?

Did the turn card hit anyone? Those left to act cold-called two on the flop with something. Ace, King, Jack, Ten, and even maybe 6 or 3 could have helped someone, so with most cards I'd be inclined to just call, and fold to a raise that comes after me.

Or is it time to toss the hand?

With people coldcalling your flop raise, you'd be getting proper odds to call the turn bet to try to improve.

3. Is this the sort of play where (for example) 4 out of 5 times it'll fail and you'll showdown a losing second pair, but then when you win on the 5th time it makes up for it?

I think this is the critical question that gets at the heart of Ed's book. If you can get it headsup, and thus improve the chances that a pair of sevens will be best, then I think the answer to your question is "yes". If you don't raise the flop, but showdown second pair, you'll beat the preflop raiser's AK, but not the other players who saw the turn for one bet.

If I'm wrong in any of my answers, someone please correct me.

[fsuplayer]

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2. If nearly everyone calls your raise (or even only one or two extra people), you are unimproved on the turn, and the preflop guy bets out again, are we raising again?

Did the turn card hit anyone? Those left to act cold-called two on the flop with something. Ace, King, Jack, Ten, and even maybe 6 or 3 could have helped someone, so with most cards I'd be inclined to just call, and fold to a raise that comes after me.

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Looks good except for this part. With a raise behind you after you call the turn, you are getting over 12-1 on the call, folding here would be very bad, unless he showed you QQ or JJJ.

fsuplayer

[Griffin]

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2. If nearly everyone calls your raise (or even only one or two extra people), you are unimproved on the turn, and the preflop guy bets out again, are we raising again?

Did the turn card hit anyone? Those left to act cold-called two on the flop with something. Ace, King, Jack, Ten, and even maybe 6 or 3 could have helped someone, so with most cards I'd be inclined to just call, and fold to a raise that comes after me.

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Looks good except for this part. With a raise behind you after you call the turn, you are getting over 12-1 on the call, folding here would be very bad, unless he showed you QQ or JJJ.

fsuplayer

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Doh! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Yeah, calling the raise is obvious now that I think about it.

[Randy Burgess]

Again I think people are relying on their literal counting of outs far too much. This is a mistake not only when you undervalue your hand, but when you overvalue it as well.

A turn raise is usually (though not always) more indicative of a big hand than a flop raise. It also depends who makes the raise and how they tend to play. And at some point if you don't pay attention to these factors it's a huge mistake which no "low limit formula" is going to correct.

In this case, let's say you failed to pick up your flush draw or otherwise improve on the turn. Let's say UTG+1 bets out again and there are players behind you to act. You decide to call (which I'm not addressing here) and it gets raised behind you.

Depending on who it is who has raised, there will be many times you should fold even if UTG+1 does not reraise. This is because your average passive or ABC player will not raise here unless they have you (and possibly UTG+1) beaten so badly you can't catch up except with a 7 - and possibly not even then. This is a judgement decision and not prone to being solved by rote application of book knowledge.

If you disagree and feel you should call a raise here automatically, OK, but you can't justify it on the basis of outs alone. You're going to have to come up with additional arguments.

[fsuplayer]

Yes, obviously you should not blindly call a turn raise from a tight passive player, but in MOST situations, a turn raise does not have to mean a set, so calling the turn raise would be okay in THAT situation.

But yes, if you have a read that a passive player made a raise which could only mean a set on that rainbow board, then yes, obviously a fold is in order.

fsuplayer

[Griffin]

Hmmm...so I guess the answer is...."it depends." [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Who'dve thunk it. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

What the turn card is and the nature of the raiser, in addition to odds and outs, must be considered before calling the raise.