Aruba Demise

[ErichS]

$300 aruba sat. on UB. 4 places pay Aruba seats, fifth is 1200 sixth is something like 600, seventh is zero. We've just hit the final table, 10 handed.
A player who I don't know aggressively raises 4x UTG. Big blind is something like 1200. Folded to me in middle position with AQ. We are both in the middle of the pack with over 30k $T. He has me covered by less than 1000.

I push. Was this idiotic? My thinking is as follows. No way he has AA with a quick raise that size raise. KK, unlikely. Likely, AK, QQ, JJ, TT, AQ, possibly 99 or AJ. It would be correct for him to lay down all likely hands, imo, except PERHAPS QQ, and I have one Q. I like to put pressure on the other guy in bubble type situations and the pressure is huge here. A fold, and he still has a very good chance at 10 grand/Aruba. Call and loose, and he gets nothing. If he does call with a likely hand I will often have a good chance of winning the pot and coasting into a seat. If someone behind me has AA or KK, so be it.

He thinks for a very long time. I'm so sure he'll fold that I don't throw out my special, make them fold comment and count up the pot while he's trying to get back at me by making me sweat. Or so I think. At the last second, he calls with AK off and it's how ever you say good bye" in Aruban for me.

[MrGo]

I think you answered your own question here. If you don't know this player, why get involved? If he is "likely" to have AK or QQ, then why are you playing this hand? You are a huge dog to either two hands.

This is an easy fold.

[fnurt]

I don't play on UB so I don't know if there is a special graphic to indicate an "aggressive" raise.

Assuming for the sake of argument that there is not, I think it pays to be conservative when you first arrive at a final table, especially in this kind of format where you are guaranteed nothing. If you observed this player for a while and saw that he was raising a lot from early position, a reraise with AQ might be brilliant. But against an unknown player, it's better to wait and see. Acquire some information so you can put your superior poker skills to use.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I don't play on UB so I don't know if there is a special graphic to indicate an "aggressive" raise.

LOL. Actually, at UB a raise of 3.5x BB would be the instant "aggressive" type, indicating the use of the *bet pot* button. I mean, for all he knows, 4x BB could be this player's standard raise.

[ErichS]

I believe that I have a feel for what constitutes an aggresive raise online based on timing. If the player wants to look strong, they usually bet very quickly, and on UB, press the bet pot button. In my experience, a quick, large EP raise virtually never means AA or KK. If I were this guy, those are the only 2 hands I would call with. My mistake, as has been pointed out, was assuming that this guy would make what I consider to be the correct play.

Here's another Q. How bad a mistake was it? How many generic players out of 10 make this call?

[davidross]

I think you missed his point, he wasn't playing his cards, he was counting on this guy laying down any hand he read him to have to the raise.

It's never easy predicting what others will do in certain situations, especially under pressure. I have been shocked more than once at the quality of hands people will call all their chips with, AT, QK etc.

IT's a fun game isn't it?

[Dominic]

With your explantation of why you raised, I don't think it's a horrible play...but like others have posted, you don't know your opponent, so you can't really put a read on what he'll play and fold. Why play AQ in this position? I almost never play it after a raise in front of me and certainly would never re-raise with it. Fold and wait for hand where you can be the agressor.

I don't make that re-raise unless I know the other player to be a good player and will fold anything but AA or KK.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

How bad a mistake was it?

I think it's a killer mistake unless you have a pretty good feeling that this player will both make this raise with Ax or KQ as easily as with AK and he is capable of folding AK or QQ at least half the time. I think you can justify your push with AK a lot eaiser than with AQ.

I also think that bet-timing tells online are way overrated unless you have a specific player profiled accurately.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Sorry, David, I don't know how anyone can eliminate AA from the range of hands he'd raise with UTG. If you assume an unknown opponent is aggressive, an UTG raise can be (and I'll pick a range here) AA-TT, AK, AQ, AJs, ATs, KQs. That's 28 possible combinations that dominate your AQ and 30 that do not. If you assume a reasonable opponent will fold AQ, AJs, ATs, JJ & TT for all his chips, but usually call with anything else, you win the pot right there a little more than half the time.

However, when called, you lose all your chips 3/4 of the time when you hold AQ as opposed to 1/3 of the time when you hold AK. As i said before, the only way this push is correct is if you have a good enough line on your opponent to know he folds QQ and AK at least half the time.

Our hero here has 25 BB in his stack. Why gamble?

[MrGo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you missed his point, he wasn't playing his cards, he was counting on this guy laying down any hand he read him to have to the raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how he can get a read from a player he doesn't know. And AQ is certainly not the hand to test that theory.