Overs and a gutshot

Jeffro · #1 07-23-2004, 03:24 PM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, CO raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, MP2 calls, CO caps, BB calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

I originally wasn’t happy calling the two cold back to me but the more I look at it I think it was the right call??

Turn: (12.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, BB folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Wasn't sure what to do with this card?

River: (15.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: 17.25 BB
Main Pot: 17.25 BB, between Hero and CO.

How bad overall, and results to follow

kgrad5 · #2 07-23-2004, 03:36 PM

n/m

rory · #3 07-23-2004, 03:44 PM

I fold when it is 2 bets back to me. You have two overs and a gutshot, yes, but there is also a flush draw out there. Hitting either one of your overcards can make someone else a straight (or two pair). Even if you hit your gutshot and it is a heart and nobody has the flush someone may have a redraw against you. It is too easy for you to make your hand and lose, this is an easy fold for me.

This is one of those hands where the Ciaffone middle limit hold 'em book is good for. He is weak-tight in a lot of places but counseling a fold here is great advice IMO.

-rory

-rory

Cheap Shot · #4 07-23-2004, 03:49 PM

CO appears to want to get as much money in the pot as possible to me. I don't even think the King is going to hold up here. I don't know how agressive the game has been, the flop call is questionable. Probably going to depend on table factors, once CO caps I would be leaning towards thinking he hit something well. Maybe thats the weak tight in me. When the king comes on the turn you could be ahead - only way you will find out is to raise - if CO 3 bets you can probably just call and check fold if you don't improve on river...

Nightwish · #5 07-23-2004, 03:57 PM

If we assume that no one has a flush draw, then you could have as many as 10 outs on the flop. If we make the not too unreasonable assumption that someone does have a flush draw (and this is the assumption I would make here), you have 7 outs. In that case, you don't have the right odds to call 2 cold on the flop, especially since there's a redraw against you even if you hit your turn. But frankly, I have no idea what your assumptions in this hand are because you seem to have hit your out on the turn and still don't know what to do with it. I'm guessing that means you didn't consider overcards to be outs, but then why are you calling the flop?

I think the conclusion here is that it's an obvious fold on the flop.

rory · #6 07-23-2004, 03:59 PM

uhh i mean weak-loose, because the preflop advice in that book sucks.

-rory

lostinthought · #7 07-23-2004, 04:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Turn: (12.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, BB folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Wasn't sure what to do with this card?

How bad overall, and results to follow

[/ QUOTE ]

You should than rename your post
"A gutshot for 2 cold"

What else are you staying in for? You hit one of your outs that you stayed in for, but when you make it, you become weak.

Check-raise here (turn) if you are staying in for a king to hit and think it's good.

But if you think it's not a clean out, than you probably don't have the odds to call two cold on the flop.

I have a feeling you won this hand though, because you say,
"I had doubts whether this was correct, but maybe it is?"

steveyz · #8 07-23-2004, 04:57 PM

I think you fold this when it's 2 cold back to you. If it was a rainbow board I might call, but there's a good chance you are drawing to just 4 outs.

SA125 · #9 07-23-2004, 05:56 PM

The problem I have looking at the hand is no reads on the players. You have MP2 and CO calling 2 cold. The BB is getting odds to give a lot of hands a chance there for 1 more bet.

J high str-fl draw flop goes CO raise, BB ch/3 bet, CO cap. What would the CO have called 2 cold with to cap here? AhJx or a pair/set most likely, with KQh being a real nice agro play to thin the field here.

Gettting this agro with TP on this flop can sometimes win you this pot on the turn.

With no reads, I don't think the flop fold is that easy.

Richie Rich · #10 07-23-2004, 06:39 PM

How many clean outs did you think you had? Despite your overcards, the villains in this hand could've had AK/KJ/QJ &/or flush draw. That kills a handful of outs you may have guesstimated you still had. In short, you only had 3 clean outs -- 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. As a rule of thumb, I try to avoid drawing to the str8 when a flush draw is apparent.