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#31
07-22-2004, 01:56 PM
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Re: Satellite bubble: do you fold AA?
[ QUOTE ]
well, i don't play in tournaments where all you win is a seat in another tourney, so you are most likely right in a situation like that. in a money tournament, though, i would never fold AA to move up a couple spots. i just could not fathom doing that, and even here, i don't see the benefit. my pokertracker numbers say AA holds up 85% of the time and that is good enough for me. cheers! [/ QUOTE ] Well, let's use that 85% number, and here's my analysis. Either the tournament will be over on its own by the time the blinds get around to hero, or it won't. Tournament ends on its own before blinds: Fold now: 100% chance of winning Push now: 85% chance of winning, 15% chance of busting out Tournament is still going and hero has to take the blinds: Fold now: Hero needs to win in blinds Push now: 85% chance of winning this hand, and then hero still needs to win in blinds It's hard to even construct a scenario where pushing comes out ahead of folding, and whatever that scenario may be, it's certainly going to be a far greater longshot than 15%. 
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#32
07-22-2004, 02:00 PM
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Re: Satellite bubble: do you fold AA?
a very tough spot to be in as we all know.. but i would lean towards ID4/tripdad and others saying push it all in. you have NO guarantees that any of the other shortstacks will lose, moving you up. you just dont know, so as tripdad or ID4 said, get your money in on the BEST cards. why wait till you're in the blinds and get a sh_tty 7-2o? That would make no sense.
I can understand the argument that there are times when you toss any cards to move up, but I think this isn't one of them. He will be blinded off within a couple hands, so might as well have it all in with the absolute BEST two cards you can have preflop. If he quadruples up, he can almost guarantee himself a top spot. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
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#33
07-22-2004, 02:13 PM
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Re: Satellite bubble: do you fold AA?
I laughed when I read your post.
[ QUOTE ] It is likely that the two blinds will not get involved. [/ QUOTE ] I find it very unlikely that the blinds will not get involved. The BB is already in for free, and the SB has a big stack and only has to put in another 1500 with a chance to bust out two players. [ QUOTE ] Now, there is also a possibility that he can win with either a real monster or outdraw his lone opponent. Ditto for the T5000 guy who will be UTG on the next hand. [/ QUOTE ] He won't have a "lone opponent", he will have two and probably three opponents if hero folds. UTG will be in the same spot for two hands in a row. There also may very well be other short stacks at the other table to be all in on a blind hand before the hero. Hero's position on the button here is everything. [ QUOTE ] If you call, you most probably have the best hand 3-handed and tripling up is an opportunity you cannot pass up. Push. [/ QUOTE ] Most probably?? ummm, i would say most definitely. Trippling up isn't going to buy him much more time since blinds are going to double before he takes his blinds. He still will have to have two others bust out before he takes his blind no matter what, so I don't think the reward is worth the risk.
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#34
07-22-2004, 02:15 PM
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Re: Satellite bubble: do you fold AA?
[ QUOTE ]
a very tough spot to be in as we all know.. but i would lean towards ID4/tripdad and others saying push it all in. you have NO guarantees that any of the other shortstacks will lose, moving you up. you just dont know, so as tripdad or ID4 said, get your money in on the BEST cards. why wait till you're in the blinds and get a sh_tty 7-2o? That would make no sense. I can understand the argument that there are times when you toss any cards to move up, but I think this isn't one of them. He will be blinded off within a couple hands, so might as well have it all in with the absolute BEST two cards you can have preflop. If he quadruples up, he can almost guarantee himself a top spot. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] cmon, tom...you realize that this is a super-sat, right. The "top spot" is 1st-11th. reread the original post. If this were a regular tournament payout structure, then this thread would be silly. (Although you may still have some wacky people arguing in favor of the fold)
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#35
07-22-2004, 02:20 PM
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Re: Satellite bubble: do you fold AA?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] a very tough spot to be in as we all know.. but i would lean towards ID4/tripdad and others saying push it all in. you have NO guarantees that any of the other shortstacks will lose, moving you up. you just dont know, so as tripdad or ID4 said, get your money in on the BEST cards. why wait till you're in the blinds and get a sh_tty 7-2o? That would make no sense. I can understand the argument that there are times when you toss any cards to move up, but I think this isn't one of them. He will be blinded off within a couple hands, so might as well have it all in with the absolute BEST two cards you can have preflop. If he quadruples up, he can almost guarantee himself a top spot. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] cmon, tom...you realize that this is a super-sat, right. The "top spot" is 1st-11th. reread the original post. [/ QUOTE ] i realize this.. all im saying is you are assuming that the other short stacks will get busted out, leaving him in the top 11 for a seat .. but there is no guarantee.. i agree also that there are times when you fold any cards, but here i just think he has only a couple hands till he 'could' be blinded off himself, best to go in with the best cards he could possibly have preflop .. if the other one or two shortstacks make it past their all ins, and on his all in blind hand he gets a Q-4o and loses, he would be mighty upset he didnt play for it with the AA.. IMO
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#37
07-22-2004, 02:26 PM
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Re: Satellite bubble: do you fold AA?
[ QUOTE ]
What you are missing is that even if he wins this hand he will be all-in on his blind. Its not a matter of assumption, it's a matter of hope. [/ QUOTE ] ahhhhh...i love it when i'm right. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
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