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#11
07-21-2004, 03:20 PM
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Re: Folding TT pre-flop
2 possible cards to flop the set out of 50 unseen cards and 3 chances to hit it.
50 / 2 = 25, 25 / 3 = 8.3 Therefore you have a 1 in 8.3 chance of hitting your set, meaning you need at least 8 callers for your pot odds to be correct. How did you come up with those numbers? That's some pretty fuzzy math. So are you basically saying it's almost never correct to play a pocket pair since you need 8 callers and that rarely happens? I hope not. 
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#12
07-21-2004, 03:52 PM
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Re: Folding TT pre-flop
[ QUOTE ]
What can you flop that's better than a set? Here's my math, tell me what's wrong with it: 2 possible cards to flop the set out of 50 unseen cards and 3 chances to hit it. 50 / 2 = 25, 25 / 3 = 8.3 Therefore you have a 1 in 8.3 chance of hitting your set, meaning you need at least 8 callers for your pot odds to be correct. [/ QUOTE ] You are ignoring the added possibility of flopping a full house or quads. For example, with TT You flop TAA Odds of this kind of flop are ~136/1 (.73%) In this case, anyone who raised preflop with Ax is in big trouble unless they also complete their full house. You flop TTx Odds of flopping quads are ~407/1 (.25%) When you add these odds to the 8.3/1 you get approximately 7.5 to 1 odds for flopping a set or better . miamikid
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#13
07-21-2004, 04:08 PM
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Re: Folding TT pre-flop
[ QUOTE ]
Therefore you have a 1 in 8.3 chance of hitting your set, meaning you need at least 8 callers for your pot odds to be correct. [/ QUOTE ] I don't mean to pick on you, but I want to make this clear. Speaking in terms of odds 8.3 to 1 means that for every time you hit your set, there are 8.3 times when you don't hit it. So, you actually have a 1 in 9.3 chance, ~10.75%, the fraction 1/9.3, of hitting your set. miamikid
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