80-160 AQ suited

[doggin]

J_V, I misread the post. He did check-raise the river.
After I read your post I had to go back and double check.


Thanks

[astroglide]

for some clarification: the pot was heads up starting preflop. there is no cold-calling third party, and some people seem to think there is. anyway, if i were in his seat i would expect an unknown opponent to raise most of the time, call some of the time (quite often a stall for a turn raise), and fold none of the time. we don't know his opponent, and he hasn't indicated that he does either.

[Coilean]

I can only dream of flopping enough monsters to make covering for them a good reason to bet the flop here. Or to find opponents in an 80 game who 3-bet me preflop and then fold before the showdown with a hand better than AQ on a trashy board just because I bet the flop. I would need much better reasons than those to persuade me to bet this flop; your showdown equity against a hand range of AK-J/ATs/KQs/AA-22 is only about 35% and you're out of position to boot. I do like your line for the turn/river, seeing as how the turn check raise semibluff is typically so ineffective in these games that it's probably not worth providing cover for.

[1800GAMBLER]

What astro said.

[Ray Zee]

at this level all good players will reraise his flop bet almost all the time. the times they wont will be when they want a small pot or intend to raise on 4th.
the only reason for this flop bet is to try to put the idea that he may have an over pair in the opponents head. whether that is worth two small bets is debateable.

[obi---one]

You got lucky, after that well played. In the long run your lead out will only cost you money.

[cero_z]

Hi Ray, Astro, and Gambler,
As Ray said, I'd expect his opponent to not raise when he was planning to raise 4th, and with this flop, position, and your opponent betting, this seems like a place to do it. I favor a check on the flop here, by the way. My point was that I don't think the lost EV is very quantifiable here. But, you're right that he will be raised often here, so I now agree that you are probably losing something by betting.

[SA125]

I don't like the river c/r. Assume an unknown player would have 3 bet PF from EP with 3 hands that he might think is a value bet on the turn and river here that you have beat - AK, JJ and TT. I think 99 is a stretch, as well TT might be.

He raises the flop either suggesting he has beat the more obvious hands you're holding or looking to see the river free with AK.

Instead of taking a free look on the turn, he fires another bullet after your ch at a Q that could've helped either of you.

On the river, AA-KK and QQ seem just as likely, if not more, than AK, JJ-TT. I think betting and getting raised on the river is better than a c/r 3 bet sceanrio.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
On the river, AA-KK and QQ seem just as likely, if not more, than AK, JJ-TT. I think betting and getting raised on the river is better than a c/r 3 bet sceanrio.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of players after getting checkraised on the river won't 3-bet even with AA or KK because it's such a strong move. The only hand that is going to 3-bet with 100% frequency is QQ.