That's Mister Fish to You : QJs in the BB

[GuyOnTilt]

Party's 15/30, 9-handed. I'm in the BB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. One player fold to a really loose, fishy calling-station of a UTG+1 who limps. A solid EMP who's a regular at the 15 raises, folded to a loose/passive CO calls, an unknown Button calls, and the SB folds. I call, EP calls. 5 to the flop for 10.6 SB's.

Flop comes: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

It's checked to EMP who bets. He would not do this with an underpair. The CO raises, Button 3-bets. I call. EP folds, EMP caps it and we all call, and the CO calls. 4 to the turn for 11.3 BB's.

Turn comes: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check, EMP checks, CO checks, Button bets. I call, EMP raises. CO drops, Button 3-bets, I call, EMP caps, we call. 3 to the river for 23.3 BB's.

Let's just stop right there for now, 'cause I have a couple questions. First, the obvious. I can't remember the last time I called 3 bets cold, and I certainly have never done it on a gutshot before. How good or bad was my call here and is it even close? Second, what range of hands do you put EMP and the Button on after the turn with percentages.

GoT

[soda]

I don't like to quantify things, so I'll just say that your flop call is very bad. I'd say, given the action, you are highly likely to see a cap here. So, calling three bets here cold is more like calling 3.75 or so because it will be capped more than half the time, IMO.

A gutshot is 11.5 to one against roughly so you would need over 40 small bets to make this call worthwhile, not counting implied odds yet. Also, your backdoor flush draw can be counted as 2 additional outs. A six outer is almost 8:1, but your outs are tainted by the huge action - if the board pairs with a diamond, you could easily be drawing dead.

I don't like the flop call at all, you are losing money here for sure.

Set over set is possible, AK possible, really any two pair hands are possible, even K7s, which brings the possibility of Kd7d. Range of hands for you doesn't really matter in this hand as you are drawing to the nuts with the gutshot and second nut with the flush. I'm not a percentages guy, sorry.

soda

[SA125]

I agree with soda. Well said. The backdoor fl increases the odds, but enough to call 3 cold to that board and action?

[AJo Go All In]

what percentage of your posts are along the lines of "watch me call a million bets with a longshot draw that you weak-tighties would fold, because really the pot is big enough that i am making money on it"?

[cero_z]

Hi GoT,
Not sure if this is a serious question, or you're just proud of gambling it up. Assuming you're not just wasting our time, let's look at your draws.

You're getting about 17 to 3 when the button 3-bets, with expectations of it being capped and called through, meaning 23 to 4 on the flop. So, your 11 to 1 gut-shot odds are short by about half. You have a backdoor flush draw, but it's not to the nuts, and some of your outs should probably be discounted due to the likely presence of 2 pair or a set. In short, your flop call was bad.

On the turn, you obviously must call, with 10 outs to the nuts or damn close.

[J_V]

Dude, what the F@#$ are you doing?

[Schneids]

I make plenty of crazyish flop calls but I've never done something this absurd.

I don't care if your two opponents have AA and KK I really doubt you'll win enough bets the occasional times you catch running diamonds or hit your gutshot.

[cero_z]

Hi GoT,
I'm changing my answer, I think. This is not as cut and dried as it seemed at first glance. If your hand stood up, you'd need to collect 5 more big bets to make it worthwhile, and it seems plausible that you'll actually get 7 or more.

But, your hand may not stand up. So, there's some math involved, and it's too early to do math. But, if it's wrong, it's not terrible to call on the flop.

[1800GAMBLER]

Call and it's not close.

At best you are getting 3:19 when it doesn't get capped, making your backdoor flush worth 2 outs (probability of hitting it is 1/5 * 1/5 = 1/25 meaning 24:1. as a percentage, 4%. In a deck of 47 unseen cards 1 out is 46:1 or 2.2% meaning the backdoor flush is worth 1.8 outs) puts you on a ~7:1 shot, I think you just might get that 1BB in over the next two streets.

At most likely you are getting 4:22 needed to get 3BBs in over the next two streets. Easy.

GoT has a huge overlay when it doesn't get capped and a nice overlay when it does, which will easily overcome the times AA KK (not reason at all to believe they are out there when it comes 3 bets cold to GoT) or 77 (no reason to fear that either). Since they have a 3.5:1 redraw on him.

[1800GAMBLER]

I gave the backdoor flush 2 outs, since the percentage for hitting the flush is over the whole hand, it should only be 1 out. You are on a 8.4:1 shot. So you need 2bbs in none capped and 6bbs in when capped.

Another way to nitpick this is i'm using implied odds on the 1 out from the backdoor flush which strictly isn't true, i'd have to do sperate EV calcs and weight them with their implied odds, that's too long for me to care to do. If it seemed closer i would.

edit: infact that's not really a nitpick. It does make the decision closer. yet it's still a call, but it's close.