Push or Fold

[Jason Strasser]

Sam,

You can't stop and go. To stop and go you need to call a raise. It is to attempt to gain folding equity in a spot where you probably don't have any by pusing preflop. Here you have folding equity by pushing preflop.

[Jason Strasser]

NEV,

I think sometimes because in a lot of these posts I always seem to say push push push, people think I just like saying push, and that I am a mad man. Maybe true. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

But with 4 players to act behind you, playing scared of a higher pocket pair or AK-AJ is bad. How can you assume that they will show up with hands like this? Regardless, I'm sure someone can bust out some sort of EV equation to show you why you can't play scared of hands like these, and why pushing is the CLEAR solution here. There is no doubt in my mind that folding is wrong, I don't even think this is near any type of borderline.

[NegativeEV]

I welcome a solid "EV Equation" here. My simple mind does simple math. If I assume that the top 5% of hands will call and I have 4 left to act behind me then .95 x .95 x .95 x .95 = .81. That tells me there is around an 80% chance that no one has a top 5% hand behind me. If we drop down to a top 10% hand, there is a ~ 60% chance that no one has this type of hand behind me. This simple calc supports your argument in my mind. Also supports that I probably have folding equity (to the blinds) so I'm even more convinced that the push is correct.

[PhilTheThrill14]

I see now where the push is actually the right play. I've been working on being more aggressive and it has started to pay off - thanx to what I read here at 2+2. I really didn't think about the loss of folding equity once the blinds hit me again when I originally answered.

Thanx guys!

[Meatmaw]

Well, NEV, if any overpair and AK AQ AJ would call, then you're looking at 90 hands out of 50*49/2 = 1225 possible hands. That's 7.35% of any 2 cards having those hands. So chance of none of them having it is about .9265^4 = 73.7% (i guess we can ignore the slight changes from each successive miss.)

So about 3/4 chance you'll steal 150, and 1/4 chance you'll go face to face to gain 700-850 more chips (let's ballpark it at 750). In the 1/4 chance you're looking at 42 possible overpair combos and 48 possible AK AQ AJ. That's 42/90 of a 1-in-5 shot, and 48 of a 1-in-2 shot.

So, the 1/4 times u get called, your expectation is:
(48/90)*(.5*750 + .5*(-700)) + (42/90)*(.2*750 + .8*(-700))
= 13.3333333 - 191.33333 = -178.0

Combined with the .75 steals, your expectation is:

.25*(-178) + .75*(150) = 68.

It is positive EV (assuming you get called by the cards you mentioned, and folded to with everything else). This doesn't include the cases where you get more than one call.

Oh, and, intuitively, I would just push. I mean, 77. That is a fine headsup hand in a rapidly control-diminishing situation.

[NegativeEV]

Good one.

[Jason Strasser]

Is this right? Something doesn't look right, yet I can't figure out what.

[Meatmaw]

By all means, please point out any parts you suspect might be incorrect enough to change the numbers significantly. I need more brain exercise in this area. I find I'm usually too lazy to think of this and I'm a geek, so I should.

[RollaJ]

Wow, you found a Party table with 7 players left at the 50/100 table..... im impressed. I either fold or call since you said it is Loose/Passive to Weak/Tight. In general Id fold, but as per your description Id try to sneak in

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]

There are eight hands (88-AA) that have you destroyed, and the rest have you at a coinflip. Plus, now is you push you have the chance of taking the blinds uncontested, which is ideal. If you wait any longer, your folding equity will be gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the party 20+2/30+3, I've been called by {Ax| x<7} quite a few times in this sort of situation. If I go in with 77 I'm not looking for a call, but I think I'm +EV on average even if called.