Help explaning something obvoius about probability

[kismet]

I recently got into an argument with a dealer of all people, and he claims that the odds of flopping a set change with the number of people in the hand. He says that with 10 people in the hand there is a better chance of your "outs" not even being in the deck. I agree with him and say "but if they ARE in the deck your chances of hitting them are just that much better". So according to him if there are 3 others in the hand there are 8 cards out for players plus one for the burn card. Making the first card have a 2/45 chance of hitting your set. I can't drive home how it doesn't matter what the burn card is, or what the players have since you haven't seen them. Anyone have any simple logic tricks to drive the point home, or know any good links about this topic? It is driving me nuts, plus there is $50 on the line. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Maybe I should just let him keep thinking things like this and just play more poker heads up.

BTW the first poker book he picked up at the bookstore said the odds of flopping a set were 10:1. I have no idea where that comes from, but it really put some more doubt in my case.