Running bad- time to post simple hands.

[muzungu]

OK, back to the basics here. Late-night 2/4 Party NL.

I'm in LMP with $180 and 99. I call a min-raise, as does a loose player behind me and the BB. 4 to the flop, all have me covered, i believe.

Flop: T87 rainbow. Min-raiser checks.

Q1: bet or check?

I bet $25. Loose LP calls. EP now c/rs to 75.

Q2: Now what?

I'm pretty sure I'm losing here, but there is $105 in dead $ sitting in the pot. If i push, loose guy folds, and EP calls, i need about 37% equity in the pot to come out neutral. I checked 2dimes- AT and AA-QQ are around 38 or 39%, TT and JJ are 24-25%, and 88/77 are around 32%. (each of these #s were about 5% lower than i had been thinking- i think I undervalued the boat redraw outs). I guess there's a chance loose LP could come along, which would help matters, or that EP is doing something wild or might fold an overpair, but this looks slightly -EV.

Oh, if i call: best case scenario is that LP calls w/o a 9. I'm then calling 50 into 205. Not quite enough for pot odds. Dunno what kind of implied odds i'm gonna get, and a 9 on the turn could help or hurt me. Also, EP could have redraw outs, LP might not come along, etc. Maybe calling is a little better than pushing, altho both seem slightly -EV.

So fold to the c/r?

(As it turned out, i pushed, LP folded, and EP called with TT. Ugh- time to play some scrabble.)

-muz

[ML4L]

Hey muzungu,

I think that either betting or checking is fine when it first comes to you. You just have to recognize that if you get check-raised, you almost surely have to fold. So, it all comes back to the probability of getting check-raised. If you think that there's a decent chance that your own action will blow you off your draw, you check and hope for a free card. If nobody is going to play back at you and you have a decent chance of picking up the pot, you bet.

Again, the check-raise was large enough to make folding the correct play (I think that EP's play screams 'big hand'). But, a raise is better than a call and might be close in some situations (your thought process on dead money and your equity was good).

Tough hand; hang in there...

ML4L

[cornell2005]

agree on all points

if i choose to bet, i know im folding to a decent raise. my decision to bet or check depends entirely on how often i get check raised. seems as if maybe you bet with the intention of stealing, but when he raised you back, hated to give up your semi-bluff/steal. its semi close, but i still dont take the bet/call raise line too often with those small stacks

[Lucky]

FOLD.

Hang in there Muz. You're a very strong player, but you're running bad. When I hit my two outer against your set the other night, I felt bad...well, not really but I wish it had been against someone else.

FWIW, here's my analysis of the situation:

1. you're running bad

2. you've been playing some 6 max, naturally altering your ring play, slightly even if almost imperceptibly

3. You've been trying to transition from weak/tight to tight/ag

4. players are sensing weakness/"he's catching cold cards, let's get him, etc." and playing more aggressive against you.

5. This is further angering you, causing even more aggression than even the aforemetioned circumstances would.


This is a lethal combo. Slow down. Play overwhemlingly, unbelievably tight (maybe not against me, as i'll now be trying to steal from you) and ride it out. And in a huge preflop pot, throw jj away.

[Richie Rich]

Great feedback, Lucky. And hang in there, muz...the bumps always seem bigger when you're playing higher stakes.

[theBruiser500]

On the flop, I would bet sometimes, but be more inclined to check. There are 4 people to the flop, not a ton of money in there right now, and there are a lot of hands that mesh with this board. When he checkraises, I think that's an easy fold. It's possible he has 9J and you'er drawing dead, your hand is not disguised at all (no implied odds), he could easily haev a set or somethign like T9. I think this is a pretty straightforward fold.

[bunky9590]

To bet or to check that is the question.

If you hand cant stand a raise (which it cant) I would prefer checking here. The minraise doesnt scare me so much as it does slow me down a bit. i have a chance to see the turn free? I'm gonna take it.

Betting isn't horrible though if the hand had a flush draw as well Id be more inclined to check.

What you really have is middle pair with a decent draw that everyone is gonna know if you hit it. Gonna be real hard to get paid if it does hit so go ahead and check and see what the turn brings.

As it was, you have to fold to the check raise. Calling is horrible as it really defines your hand. The only other alternative is pushing but with the check raise you are likely behind (almost ceratinly) Save your $$ for the times where you have a much better situation.