10-20 NL - When you outthink yourself...

[jkinetic]

This is a hand that has been bothering me and I can't stop thinking about it since it occurred last Friday night.

10-20 NL at the Mecca, for those of you not in the know, the Mecca refers to Commerce.

I limp UTG with wired K's with ~10 dimes behind. My limping in this spot is not open for debate, I had reasons for this which I won't go into now.

Everyone folds to the SB, he now makes it 200 straight with ~5 to 6 dimes behind, the BB folds and now the action is up to me.

A little insight into the SB, he is a real nice dude. He looks like a punk rocker and might even be in a band, that particular night he was wearing an AFI t-shirt. He has spikey blond hair and plays there often. He plays a solid straight forward game. So for the remainder of the post
I will refer to him as punk rocker.

Anyways, he puts in the 200 with supreme confidence. Now the punk rocker was on a rush. He won the past few pots he played for multiple g's, twice in the SB with wired Aces and another time with a premium wired pair, K's or Q's.

My reads were on all night and I really felt he had a big hand here, Aces specifically, possibly Queens.

I don't why, but I just smooth called here, it just felt right, I had position and I wanted to see the texture of the flop and then take it from there. BTW, I think that is something most players do not consider enough in their game, using the texture of the flop to their advantage based
on the read of their opponents hand.

So we take the flop heads up and it comes up 8,5 rag with 2 spades. I had the K of spades.

Punk rocker leads confidently for 300, my read didn't change but I wanted to slow him down, so I min raise him. Punk rocker is solid, he ain't a donkey. So my thinking behind the min raise was to represent a set and I knew he was good enough to interpret it as such. Plus I knew he wouldn't come over the top of me who had him covered twice over unless he had the goods or had the heart of a lion.

He quickly and confidently called the 300, this reaffirmed my read of Aces.

Another insight into the punk rocker. Previously before he went on his rush, he had made a few mistakes and was down a few dimes. He seemed a little frustrated and I took advantage of it a few times by playing back at him on the flop with rags and both times he laid down.

One time in particular stuck out, he raised preflop 200 and the flop comes K high with a possible straight and flush draw. I had total rags, he bet 200, all folded to me and I made it 600 straight. He looked at me rather annoyed and laid it down. I think he knew I was playing back at him but
probably felt he wasn't in a good enough position(image wise or stack wise) to do anything about it.

So when he called my min raise on the flop he didn't have that same annoyed look and that concerned me.

Now this is where I begin to get bothered about my play.

On the turn the 8 pairs and he confidently leads out for a dime. I think for a while and try to get into his head. Unfortunately that min raise didn't slow him down. My thinking was that he thought I was on a flush draw and tried to buy the turn and he led to prevent that from happening. I wanted to pull the trigger here and raise again, but this time 3 dimes straight. But he looked confident and I kept thinking back to when I played back at him and he had that annoyed look on his face like he wanted to get back at me and that this was the time. I felt if I raised again and tried to represent the full house that this time he wouldn't lay down and that I would be throwing away my money.

I still put him on Aces but we could tie and I had a good enough hand to show down. And then I figured I had a potential 12 outs. 2 K's and 10 spades. 2 K's gives me the entire pot. 10 spades buys me a free show down or I can try to buy it with a bet.

So I called, believe me, I hated that.

On the river comes a low spade and punk rocker quickly checks. I go into my huddle again and think I can seriously represent the flush here, how much do I bet? I figure if I bet a dime, it would seem enough relative to the pot that I made my hand and wanted him to call. If I bet 2 dimes, maybe it was too much and he would think I was trying to buy it and call me. And I kept thinking and thinking
and thinking and then I came to this.

I felt that he was emotionally invested into this pot and that no matter how much I bet he was going to call. I was being paranoid and thought I had been running over the table all night including against him and that he was going to take a stand with this hand on this pot.

I think I outthought myself, so I checked.

He tabled 2 Aces and I never showed my cards nor my skirt.

[gomberg]

Nice post - great way to describe the hand and relevant details. I think your thought process was pretty good except on the turn, because I agree from your description that he would have called a decent bet on the end. Fold the turn when he stop and goes - although it was a "protective bet", so if he thinks you're bad enough to call that with just a flush draw, then make the play and bet 2 dimes on the river. If he does have the As, maybe he'll think you were playing a set and just called the near nuts on the turn.

[jen]

I've been to Commerce only once, but I think I know who it is that you're referring to - the 80-160 limit player, no?

I'm not crazy about the flop raise.

So was the punk rocker holding the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]? I think if you wanted to buy the pot on the river, then you'd have had to bet at least $2k. It's a hard sell even then though, given the betting sequence (pre-flop, turn). And if PR was holding the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], then you were toast regardless.

[turnipmonster]

jen had a great point about the As. interesting hand, nice read. knowing when to not to pull the trigger is very important and very hard, maybe the hardest thing for me personally. if you are going to bluff, I think it has to be at least 2k, and probably should be 3k. chances are slim he lays down aces getting 4 to 1.

--turnipmonster

[1800GAMBLER]

Great post. Daniel N has a similar hand (2nd one) here.

In the hand the turn is your main decision, based on what you have said it's call or fold, on the turn he bets $1k into what i think is a $1k pot, with 12 outs, 10 of which (the flush cards) value is debatable, but you can best judge that. Anyhow, on the turn if you are confident he has aces you can fold, even with the river bluff card you just aren't getting your price. Moreso, with your read on him too for your turn play to be correct you have to go with your action on the river.

I'm not thrilled about your flop bet as it has no purpose. However this time it did give you an advantage you didn't expect, when he bets out on the turn you know he's put you on the flush draw hence if he's totally 100% suure in his reads and fold to the flush coming it's turned out that the flop bet has been a huge advantage.

[turnipmonster]

interesting daniel n hand. I think counting bluffing cards as outs is really important in higher games.

--turnipmonster

[ML4L]

Hey jkinetic,

I have pretty much the same take as everyone else. You made a mistake somewhere, either the turn or the river. I tend to think that the mistake was the turn; I agree with you that there's a pretty good chance that he was committed to the hand and that he was going to call the river.

I dunno. Very interesting hand, but I don't feel like there's much more to say. I do like the casualness with which you use "g" and "dime." Definitely "badass..." [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

ML4L

[Ulysses]

Given your strong read, I think folding the turn is fine, especially if you're sure and there's a chance you might not pull the trigger on the river. However, I'm not so sure this guy wouldn't play Queens the exact same way. What was it that made you so confident he had Aces and not Queens?

I noticed in playing this guy that he seemed to stick to his reads pretty stubbornly (based on a VERY small sample). For that reason, I'm not sure that a turn raise would have been successful unless it was a really big one (your 3k straight feels good) - not worth the risk IMO. If he put you on a flush draw and felt pretty good about that, he could easily call a sizeable turn raise.

As for the river, given the way you played it (no raise pre-flop, min-raise on the flop, flat-call the turn), I think you represented the flush draw perfectly and you could have won it, but probably needed to bet a little more than you were planning - 2500 seems about right.

[cornell2005]

that daniel N hand is great. i remember reading it a copule months ago when I had a much weaker understanding of poker, and didnt find it quite as interesting then.

[Zoe's Echo]

Your post was excellent from a detail perspective. Makes it easy to get into your shoes in the hand.

In reading your post it sounds like your level of analysis was superb but I have one nagging question. With the limp UTG you had seen things on the absolute cheap. The rushing player (whom you seem to have an incredible read on vis-a-vis the hand where he showed no confidence on your flop steal) was brimming with confidence here so either AA (other KK rather unlikely) or QQ. For $190 you see a flop which looks ragged - but didn't look like what you needed - K.

He leads a 75% pot bet and you micro raise. He calls confident - his read is not set as he leads you on the turn for a pot-sized bet.

I think that you are done after the flop bet given your read of this player and his tell. I am surprised that you moved for 3x his opening bet in the steal situation and only 2x when holding a legitmate hand here. I know that you were representing a set but what where you repping before at 3x?? His call doesn't indicate his ability to read you since you have a hand now and held trash before - his thinking is 100% tied to what he is his holding. Given that you have so much the better read when he leads for 1K on the turn is it time to let it go and look for a better spot?? $800 loss in a KK vs. AA setup is not at all a bad hit - almost free. When he leads the turn I would think that there is no doubt in your mind what he holds and he has convinced himself that he is ahead with you holding a pocket overpair or flush draw.

The question regarding representing the the flush on the river is really tied to prior play and his level of obervation. In the past have you called for 1.5 to 1 pot odds (ignoring implied stack odds) on the turn with a flush draw?? Have you slowplayed a FH on the turn?? If so has he seen it?? If you hit, how did you bet in your position?? Also does he hold the As?? - wouldn't give as much credit to a non-nut chase.

From your description, I think that you will take this players money rather readily over the not-so-long haul so why kill yourself over a missed bluff opportunity. If you had moved and he called you would probably feel much worse and ask why you didn't lay it down on the turn.