My "Sklansky-ish" thoughts on the AK limp/raise/min.raise debate

[coltrane]

Here's one way of thinking about it:
if we all agree that we're not going broke to it automatically if we flop an ace or a king (meaning we can adequately play the TPTK hand from the flop on), AK can be thought of like this.....

everyone else has either a pair or unpaired cards....if someone has AA or KK, we're gonna find out about that one way or another but we'll assume again that we're good enough to play that situation correctly.....but other than that, against any other pair our AK is a slight dog - in which case I would think that we'd want 2 to 1 on our money one way or another (those are the odds of flopping top pair) - effective or implied odds.....if an ace or king flops, we play the hand accordingly keeping in mind that with our TPTK we are a favorite over any pocket pair that has not flopped a set....we got full value from the hand...

against any unpaired cards, the only thing we're worried about (if we flop an A or K) is someone flopping two pair, trips, or a straight (and those and the draws we'll have to play against accordingly)....but, all of those things are longshots to be ahead of us on the flop if we hit an ace or a king.....so by raising with AK, even if it's the minimum, they're making a mathematical mistake by calling and in the long run we'll be ahead (again, assuming we can play the hand from the flop on).....

so technically, even though everyone says to raise pre-flop with AK to isolate, you'd really rather the whole table call your raise (with poor odds to do so) - in the long run it has a higher EV......and I don't really think this is limited to limit hold'em, because especially from the flop on, a good player will make more money in NL because of being able to distort odds accordingly with their bets....

but that still means that it's clearly a negative EV play for a good player to limp with AK (and unnecessarily give infinite odds to the blinds) and that even a min. raise is a huge difference in EV.....

-Sunny

[Prevaricator]

I think if the whole table calls your raise, especially with just pairs and connected cards, you can't do much with it unless you flop more than TPTK. Also with only one caller, you can win the pot without hitting the flop; you can never do this if the whole table calls. The EV probably maxes out after a certain number of callers.

[NotAClue]

The problem with this thinking is that with several callers, if you flop TPTK the pot is so large that any bet that you use to eliminate others' drawing odds is going to pot commit you in shallow stacked online games.

[coltrane]

the pot won't be huge relative to stack sizes because remember the pre-flop raise was just a minimum raise...also, whether or not it costs one's whole stack, if that's what it takes to give improper odds then it's a positive EV play......you want them to call with bad odds, regardless of whether they draw out or not.....

it's just a different way of thinking, but it seems more correct than the norm really....it definitely requires good post-flop play though in order to put someone on a hand....but most people would think the opposite - that they'd rather raise big before the flop with AK to "isolate" and they'd gladly rather get called by a single person holding maybe a smaller pocket pair....now if AK flops an A or K and the small PP doesn't hit a set, you take down a small-ish pot with a bet....but if you think this way, aren't you really taking the worst of it?....the pair was favored over you before the flop and you wagered even money on a 2 to 1 shot and then didn't even get paid off when you hit.....

[coltrane]

[ QUOTE ]
I think if the whole table calls your raise, especially with just pairs and connected cards, you can't do much with it unless you flop more than TPTK.

[/ QUOTE ]

what are you afraid of them flopping?.....a set?....any pocket pair was ahead of you before the flop anyway, so they absolutely are correct in calling whatever raise you make before the flop....but any unpaired cards (who are all behind you before the flop) - what are you afraid of?...if they flop a draw, you're still a favorite to win the hand and because it's NL you can bet whatever the correct amount is on the flop in order to give them improper odds to catch.....

the odds of any unpaired cards flopping something that's ahead of you on the flop are way more of a longshot than the odds they were getting to call even your pre-flop minimum raise....flopping two-pair is 49/1....flopping trips is 73/1...flopping a straight is 76/1....flopping a flush is 118/1....all these pre-flop callers with unpaired cards were taking the worst of it from you before the flop.....you WANT them all to call if YOU know how to play well on the flop.....YOU will shut down when they get lucky and have you beat on the flop....but you will make tons of money when they call bets on the flop when they are behind you and not getting proper odds to call....

[NotAClue]

If you min-raise preflop expecting to get several callers then those callers are getting terrific implied odds to call with a wide range of hands, the least of which being any PP, various Axs, various suited connectors etc.

With several callers seeing the flop, you are collectively a huge underdog on the flop when you hit TPTK. Against any one of those callers your TPTK may be best, but collectively against all of them you are almost surely against a better hand or a better draw.

And because of your weak pf raise, it will be difficult to put anyone on hands. Not to mention for this to work, you'd have to make the same raise with all of your other hands, which would be disastrous for big pairs. In general, I think you have set up the absolutely worst reverse implied odds situation.

[Prevaricator]

A pocket pair is only theoretically ahead of AK preflop. The only way they are playing it if they don't flop a set is if they KNOW you have AK. And I am afraid of them flopping a set or two pair when I hit something. If you get 8 callers and the flop comes KJT, 2 hearts, my instincts tell me im no good.

They will be "getting lucky" a lot too if there's 8 of them. How often do you expect to flop TPTK and have it be good? Its real easy for them to flop a set, and its not like they are goign to pay you off with nothing. If any one of them shows you strength, how can you play the hand unless you know what they have.

[TheCat]

AK doesn't do well in a mulitiway pot you want to knock out small pairs that can flop trips and really spoil your day. You want to knock out suited connectors. Your point about raising the pot enough so a drawing hand does not have odds doesn't allways work. If a drawing hand has 14 or more outs they are correct to go all in on the flop. Although in practice folk don't often take advantage of this. I like to get zero or one callers with AK. AK is devilisly difficult to play on the flop even when you hit an A or K. I'm happy just to win the blinds.
I can't prove it but I suspect your EV on this hand peaks at one caller.

[ClimbRock512]

I think the biggest flaw in your reasoning is that you assume the AK player is able to play the flop correctly. But if you don't raise much preflop, they could have anything. When you come out betting, especially if you hit, and they come back at you, they may be behind, but think that they are ahead. This may sound good, but how are you going to know whether they had AQ or flopped a set/two pair. Your theory requires a read using little or no information, something that is not possible to do.

Also, if you get more than one caller, and you hit, a lot of the time someone is going to hit harder.
I think you need to come out firing, representing AA or KK. If you hit, keep on firing, if not, take a stab, a lot of the time you take it down right there. If someone plays back and you didn't hit, then its easy to dump. If you hit, and someone plays back, then its a little tricky. Use what you know and hope for the best. You should be able to pick up enough pots on the flop that these losing situations will be more than covered.

[Leo Bello]

That is the greatest problem with AK, the uncertainty.
If you read the last posts, they state if u hit, someone can have hit harder, if you bet, you may lose, if you check you may lose, if you raise, you can be raising dead.
Anyway, it is just one of the toughest hands to play. Normally, doesn´t win big pots. When on a big pot, normally someone will have something better like a set or Pocket AA or KK. when they don´t have this, they will fold to you, and you will take home a smaller pot.
the tough thing is to know if these little pots summed up, give more than the money you lose when someone hits their hands against your AK. and more, if you will know the time to stop firing and fold your AK.