KQs in 1st round $10+1 SnG - Page 2

Jason Strasser · #11 07-01-2004, 02:06 PM

I said probably call, because I usually never put myself in a situation like this. I also said I'd probably call because chances are most of my outs were good.

If I knew one of my opponents had a set, I make this fold. However I don't think that 100% of the time someone will have a set in this spot. I wish I could run a few simulations, but twodimes isn't working right now for me. I am getting very good value on my call (~3:1). Even if one of my opponents had a set, you still wouldn't be very -EV.

This wasn't a great post, but I think mathematically the good choice is to call.

Laomedon · #12 07-01-2004, 02:16 PM

I think posters in this thread might have been giving too much credit to $10+1 SnG players on PP. I've played quite a bit of 10+1 and 20+2 SnGs on Party recently while playing ring games as a bit of a diversion and I've found the competition to be.. how should I put it.. lacking.

As was mentioned earlier you have perhaps as many as 9 outs to the flush plus as many as 8 to the straight, for all you know your King could be a clean out as well. Considering that one of my optimal strategies for these SnGs is to acquire a somewhat large-ish stack early on and sit on it until there are 3-5 players left, I certainly think going all-in here is the correct play.

I also agree with calling pre-flop as opposed to raising, this type of hand plays well multi-way. Indeed on the flop I check it as well with the intention of raising and perhaps winning it right there. When you see two all-ins you certainly should grasp this opportunity to triple up and easily take third place (at the very least). I'd like to reiterate the fact that PP SnGs at this level have plenty of brainless *censored* swimming around so a thoroughly defeatist attitude might be -EV.

NegativeEV · #13 07-01-2004, 02:21 PM

Thanks for clarifying. I'm struggling a little bit with this still. Even if I'm getting 3:1 pot odds and I'm only a 1.5:1 dog, I lay down in this situation given that this is a tounament and my whole stack is on the line. In a ring game, I think the call is right as the odds/math indicate, but in a tournament I think the pot odds vs. draw odds has a little different meaning given that you are out when you miss. As I mentioned in a previous post, I think I'm too conservative overall as my ROI is weak but my ITM% is strong as I have a lot of 3rd place finishes. This may be a place where I can improve by making these tough calls to get more 1st place finishes.

NegativeEV · #14 07-01-2004, 02:28 PM

This is a very good point. When I take a BR hit or a withdrawl I often move back to the $10+1 SnGs on Party, and I often make bad lay downs giving other players more credit than I should. I generally struggle on the $10 tables as I miss opportunities to make a tough play and triple up. More important than giving a sure path to 3rd, I think a triple through here results in a better chance for 1st which is what the aim should probably be.

RoyalSampler · #15 07-01-2004, 02:36 PM

I am wondering if this is a case where more information can be gathered by not raising. If I raise with KQ the only people that call will likely have me in trouble. Best I can hope for is JJ 1010 AJ. But if I check and noone raises. I can be very comfortable that if a Q or K comes up that I have TPTK. Sounds reasonable? Certainly less fold equity.

Sorry if this is a subtle highjack.

ddubois · #16 07-01-2004, 02:37 PM

Well, 2 of your 8 straight outs and 9 of your flush outs are the same card, don't double count them. I think it would be a mistake to play this hand as if the K or the Q might be good outs, or at the very least, consider them tainted and worth fractional value, say 1 out total. So I think you have to play this like you have 16 outs.

With 16 outs, you have a signifigantly better than 50/50 (roughly 64% with the 2/4 rule) chance to triple up. Is that worth the risk of busting? Given that you can always enter another SNG right away if you miss, I think it is, especially considering that we are tripling up here, not doubling up.

poboys · #17 07-01-2004, 03:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for clarifying. I'm struggling a little bit with this still. Even if I'm getting 3:1 pot odds and I'm only a 1.5:1 dog, I lay down in this situation given that this is a tounament and my whole stack is on the line. In a ring game, I think the call is right as the odds/math indicate, but in a tournament I think the pot odds vs. draw odds has a little different meaning given that you are out when you miss. As I mentioned in a previous post, I think I'm too conservative overall as my ROI is weak but my ITM% is strong as I have a lot of 3rd place finishes. This may be a place where I can improve by making these tough calls to get more 1st place finishes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would agree with you--if you were only playing one tourny.
Just like in a Ring Game if you call and lose you rebuy, you can always play another tourny.

Think about it this way: if you triple up what is the probability that you'd finish in the money, versus if you fold.

Finally, one of the tricks I read about in previous posts is to decide, pre-flop what kind of flop you want to see. What flop would make you want to stay in this hand. This is a near-dream flop for you!