Rolled Aces in 75-150, big pot, blind river bet

[Andy B]

If he has an open pair, it's much less clear, and probably only a call. If you "know" he has at least trips, it's about 3:2 against him making a full house by the river, absent any information about the liveness of his hand. I don't feel like doing the math just now, but let's just say that B-Man's hand would have to somewhat dead for Sixes-full to raise his open Aces.

[timmer]

I dont know if Im 4 betting on 5th I might just call and try to get a few more whacks in later in the hand . I doubt this is the book play for triplets but Im usually trying to maximize my winnings and get the second best hand to make further mistakes as per TFTOP.

I understand the reasons behind 4 betting and see nothing really wrong with it because the pot is large and you kind of like winning it before the cows come home. But I doubt that you will put him off it, so you might as well go for the +EV variance.

I also never do anything in the blind even if I know I will call a raise or instantly muck. But that is just me.

Just my few cents

[timmer]

[quote I didn't respond to this originally but I don't agree that opponent has a clear value raise here. It depends on the cards that have been out and his read on the opponent.

In this hand, the bettors side cards were somewhat dead (all 6s, 1J gone).

But in a hand where all side cards are live, it's about 4-1 against opponent filling on the river if you've only seen your own cards and his up cards -- and they are all live. What's more, you can't know for sure if he is already full before the river. And if you've seen eight additional cards (6 opponents, two staying for fourth), the odds go down to 3.5 or so.

So best case is that you'll win one extra bet four times and lose two extra bets twice (assuming neither of you ever folds).

Now, if his chances of being full before the final card are just 1 in 4, you're looking at only winning your extra bet about 3 times and losing two bets about 2 times -- now it's negative.



[/ QUOTE ]
Just a technical point:
there is also a dead 8 leaving him with 2 8's, 3 6th street cards and 3 hole cards for him to fill on

considering a full ring and 18 cards exposed before the river there are 34 unseen cards remaining or 33 after you pick up your river card. AND if it isnt a 8 or a card matching his 6th street card the chances of him filling upon the river are 25:8 against or 3.125:1 against if the events described as per the previous detail hold true.

If you do pick up one of his board cards ( or a probable hole card) his odd (mathamatically or empirically) of having filled decrease significantly.

This supports my basic tennent of never doing anything in the blind.

just my few cents (wet as they may be)